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Live prediction market odds for Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / ProphetX

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Philadelphia Phillies Wins: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM ET)

MLB·Resolved 2026-08-26

This market resolved on 2026-08-26. Philadelphia Phillies was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.

About This Market

Philadelphia Phillies vs.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-26. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Final Closing Odds

4 platforms
Candidate
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
ProphetX
Josh Naylor Under 1.5 Home Runs
——100%—
Dominic Canzone Under 1.5 Home Runs
——100%—
Bryan Woo Over 3.5 Strikeouts
99%—100%—
Jesus Luzardo Over 4.5 Strikeouts
99%—100%—
Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 Strikeouts
99%—100%—
Philadelphia PhilliesWINNER
99%100%100%99%
Alec Bohm Under 1.5 Home Runs
——99%—
Bryan Woo Over 2.5 Strikeouts
99%———
Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Hits
99%———
Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Hits
99%———
Bryce Harper Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Bryce Harper Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Bryce Harper Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Jesus Luzardo Over 3.5 Strikeouts
99%———
Jesus Luzardo Over 8.5 Strikeouts
99%———
Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 Hits
99%———
Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Hits
99%———
Kyle Schwarber Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Kyle Schwarber Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Kyle Schwarber Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Over 1.5 runs scored
99%———
Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Randy Arozarena Under 1.5 Home Runs
——99%—
Trea Turner Under 1.5 Home Runs
——99%—
Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 Home Runs
——99%—
Kyle Schwarber Under 1.5 Home Runs
——97%—
Justin Crawford Under 0.5 Home Runs
——94%99%
Total over 2.5
99%——96%
Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 Home Runs
——92%99%
Kyle Schwarber Over 2.5 Hits
95%———
Trea Turner Under 0.5 Home Runs
——91%99%
Total over 5.5
99%——95%
Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——91%99%
J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 Home Runs
——90%99%
Josh Naylor Under 0.5 Home Runs
——92%96%
Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 Home Runs
——92%95%
Philadelphia Phillies spread minus 3.5
99%——93%
Bryson Stott Under 0.5 Home Runs
——87%99%
Total under 11.5
———92%
Alec Bohm Under 0.5 Home Runs
——92%99%
Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 Home Runs
——89%94%
Total under 9.5
———91%
Philadelphia Phillies spread plus 3.5
———90%
Philadelphia Phillies spread minus 4.5
———90%
Philadelphia Phillies spread plus 2.5
——82%98%
Philadelphia Phillies spread plus 1.5
——87%92%
Philadelphia Phillies spread minus 2.5
99%—100%89%
Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 Home Runs
——79%98%
Cole Young Under 0.5 Home Runs
——80%97%
Total under 10.5
———88%
Total under 7.5
——95%80%
Total under 8.5
——95%80%
Bryce Harper Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%86%
Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 Hits
86%———
Total under 6.5
——83%89%
Total over 3.5
99%——86%
Total over 6.0
———85%
Brock Rodden Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———85%
Bryce Harper Under 1.5 Home Runs
——85%—
Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%83%
Taylor Ward Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———83%
Luis Arraez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——80%99%
Luis Arraez Under 1.5 Home Runs
——80%—
Total over 4.5
99%——80%
Philadelphia Phillies spread minus 1.5
99%—100%74%
Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 Strikeouts
99%—100%73%
Alec Bohm Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———71%
Philadelphia Phillies spread plus 1.0
———70%
Bryan Woo Over 4.5 Strikeouts
99%—100%67%
Dominic Canzone Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———67%
Josh Naylor Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———67%
J.T. Realmuto Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———65%
Total under 7.0
———64%
Justin Crawford Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——64%
Cal Raleigh Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———63%
Taylor Ward Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———63%
Randy Arozarena Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———62%
Total under 8.0
———62%
Bryan Woo Under 5.5 Strikeouts
——100%62%
Cole Young Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
0%——61%
Julio Rodriguez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———61%
Bryson Stott Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———61%
Trea Turner Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———60%
Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———59%
J.P. Crawford Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%——58%
Kyle Schwarber Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———54%
Bryce Harper Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———54%
Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
53%——54%
Josh Naylor Over 0.5 Home Runs
——97%9%
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——52%
Luis Arraez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———52%
Seattle Mariners spread plus 1.0
———52%
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——50%
Philadelphia Phillies spread minus 1.0
———50%
J.P. Crawford Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%—90%6%
J.P. Crawford Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———48%
Jesus Luzardo Over 7.5 Strikeouts
99%—100%48%
Trea Turner Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
46%——48%
Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
42%——49%
Bryson Stott Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——45%
Cole Young Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———44%
Justin Crawford Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———44%
Total over 7.0
———44%
Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
43%——44%
Taylor Ward Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
42%——44%
Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———43%
Bryan Woo Over 5.5 Strikeouts
1%—1%42%
Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
41%——43%
Josh Naylor Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———42%
Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%——41%
J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
0%——41%
Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
44%——38%
Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
37%——44%
Total over 8.0
———38%
Seattle Mariners spread minus 1.0
———35%
Jesus Luzardo Under 6.5 Strikeouts
——0%33%
Seattle Mariners spread plus 1.5
——0%29%
Bryce Harper Over 2.5 Hits
29%———
Taylor Ward Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%——28%
Trea Turner Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
28%———
Julio Rodriguez Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
27%———
Randy Arozarena Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
27%———
Brock Rodden Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%——26%
Cal Raleigh Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
26%———
Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 Home Runs
99%—100%25%
Trea Turner Over 1.5 Hits
25%———
Total under 4.5
———24%
Total over 8.5
1%—5%43%
Total under 6.0
———23%
Seattle Mariners spread plus 4.5
———21%
Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Home Runs
——20%—
Total over 10.5
1%——20%
Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Home Runs
99%—100%19%
Total over 9.5
1%——19%
Total under 3.5
———17%
Total over 6.5
1%—17%14%
Seattle Mariners spread minus 2.5
1%—18%13%
Julio Rodriguez Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
15%———
Trea Turner Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
15%———
Seattle Mariners spread plus 2.5
——0%15%
Total over 7.5
1%—5%24%
Seattle Mariners spread minus 3.5
1%——14%
Randy Arozarena Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
14%———
Luis Arraez Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%—20%8%
Seattle Mariners spread minus 1.5
1%—13%14%
Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 Home Runs
3%—21%13%
Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 Hits
13%———
Total under 5.5
———12%
Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Hits
12%———
Total over 11.5
1%——11%
Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 Home Runs
4%—11%13%
Seattle Mariners spread plus 3.5
———10%
Dominic Canzone Over 0.5 Home Runs
——11%9%
Julio Rodriguez Over 0.5 Home Runs
3%—10%8%
Cal Raleigh Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
8%———
Total under 2.5
———7%
Brock Rodden Over 0.5 Home Runs
4%——10%
Alec Bohm Over 0.5 Home Runs
4%—10%7%
Cole Young Over 0.5 Home Runs
0%——7%
J.T. Realmuto Over 0.5 Home Runs
4%—10%7%
Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 Hits
7%———
Justin Crawford Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%—6%8%
Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 Home Runs
3%—6%12%
Bryson Stott Over 0.5 Home Runs
3%——7%
Trea Turner Over 0.5 Home Runs
4%—5%10%
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Home Runs
1%—3%—
Julio Rodriguez Over 2.5 Hits
3%———
Randy Arozarena Over 2.5 Hits
3%———
Trea Turner Over 2.5 Hits
3%———
Seattle Mariners
1%1%0%3%
Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 Home Runs
1%—2%—
Julio Rodriguez Under 1.5 Home Runs
——2%—
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Home Runs
1%—1%—
Bryan Woo Over 6.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Bryan Woo Over 7.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 Hits
1%———
Jesus Luzardo Over 10.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Jesus Luzardo Over 11.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Jesus Luzardo Over 9.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Julio Rodriguez Over 0.5 Hits
1%———
Julio Rodriguez Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%———
Trea Turner Over 0.5 Hits
1%———
Trea Turner Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
1%———
Trea Turner Over 3.5 Hits
1%———
Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 Home Runs
1%—1%—
Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Home Runs
1%—1%—
Trea Turner Over 1.5 Home Runs
0%—1%—
Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 Home Runs
0%—1%—
Josh Naylor Over 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Home Runs
0%—0%—
Jesus Luzardo Under 4.5 Strikeouts
——0%—
Jesus Luzardo Under 5.5 Strikeouts
——0%—
Cal Raleigh Over 2.5 Hits
0%———
Cal Raleigh Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
0%———
Julio Rodriguez Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
0%———
Randy Arozarena Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
0%———
Trea Turner Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
0%———

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
ProphetXProphetX
ProphetX Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.7%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Winner

Philadelphia Phillies

99.4% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM ET)

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Seattle wins the Philadelphia vs Seattle professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 26, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Philadelphia vs Seattle professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 26, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners, scheduled for August 26 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners MLB game scheduled for 2026-08-26 at 4:10PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.

ProphetXProphetX
Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles
ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM ET) prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM ET) odds?

The last available prices are Philadelphia Phillies: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 99.0¢ on ProphetX, 99.5¢ on Polymarket US; Seattle Mariners: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 2.8¢ on ProphetX, 0.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM ET) odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 2.7 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM ET) prediction market payouts work?

For example, Philadelphia Phillies at 99.4¢ implies about a 99.4% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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