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Live prediction market odds for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins (6:40 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / ProphetX

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Miami Marlins Wins: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins (6:40 PM ET)

MLB·Resolved 2026-08-12

This market resolved on 2026-08-12. Miami Marlins was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.

About This Market

Pittsburgh Pirates vs.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins (6:40 PM ET) — MLB game held on 2026-08-12. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Final Closing Odds

4 platforms
Candidate
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
ProphetX
Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 Home Runs
——50%99%
Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——50%99%
Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 Home Runs
——50%99%
Janson Junk Over 1.5 Strikeouts
99%———
Joe Mack Under 0.5 Home Runs
——50%99%
Leo Jimenez Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Over 2.5 runs scored
99%———
Agustin Ramirez Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Henry Davis Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%99%
Otto Lopez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%99%
Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 Home Runs
——50%99%
Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 Home Runs
———98%
Owen Caissie Under 0.5 Home Runs
——1%97%
Miami Marlins spread minus 5.5
———96%
Miami Marlins spread minus 3.5
99%——94%
Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 Home Runs
——87%99%
Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——87%98%
Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——86%99%
Total under 10.5
———92%
Total over 3.5
99%——91%
Total over 4.5
99%——91%
Griffin Conine Under 0.5 Home Runs
——86%95%
Miami Marlins spread minus 4.5
———89%
Miami Marlins spread plus 2.5
——88%90%
Miami Marlins spread plus 4.5
———88%
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 6.5
———88%
Total over 6.5
99%——87%
Total under 11.5
———87%
Miami Marlins spread plus 3.5
———86%
Miami MarlinsWINNER
99%100%86%99%
Total over 8.5
99%—78%91%
Miami Marlins spread plus 1.5
——88%80%
Total over 5.5
99%——83%
Brandon Lowe Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———82%
Leo Jimenez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———82%
Agustin Ramirez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———81%
Henry Davis Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———80%
Total over 7.5
99%—88%72%
Miami Marlins spread minus 1.5
99%—61%90%
Heriberto Hernandez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———73%
Miami Marlins spread minus 2.5
99%—69%78%
Carmen Mlodzinski Under 3.5 Strikeouts
——49%93%
Total under 12.5
———71%
Henry Davis Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———71%
Miami Marlins spread plus 1.0
———71%
Joe Mack Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———69%
Esteury Ruiz Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———68%
Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———67%
Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———65%
Owen Caissie Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
Jacob Gonzalez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
Spencer Horwitz Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
Joe Mack Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———63%
Miami Marlins spread minus 1.0
———62%
Jake Mangum Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———61%
Total over 9.5
99%—57%65%
Janson Junk Under 4.5 Strikeouts
——0%61%
Total over 7.0
———61%
Otto Lopez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———60%
Ronny Simon Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———60%
Griffin Conine Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———59%
Leo Jimenez Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———59%
Total over 9.0
———58%
Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———57%
Owen Caissie Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———57%
Total over 8.0
———57%
Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———57%
Janson Junk Over 3.5 Strikeouts
1%——56%
Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———55%
Esmerlyn Valdez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———54%
Javier Sanoja Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———54%
Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———54%
Owen Caissie Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———54%
Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———52%
Leo Jimenez Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———52%
Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———52%
Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———51%
Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———51%
Griffin Conine Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———51%
Carmen Mlodzinski Over 3.5 Strikeouts
1%—51%51%
Otto Lopez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———50%
Jake Mangum Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———50%
Ronny Simon Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———50%
Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———49%
Total under 8.0
———48%
Agustin Ramirez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———48%
Total under 9.0
———47%
Jacob Gonzalez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———47%
Joe Mack Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———47%
Henry Davis Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———47%
Jakob Marsee Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———46%
Janson Junk Under 3.5 Strikeouts
——0%46%
Total under 7.0
———45%
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 1.0
———44%
Esteury Ruiz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———43%
Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———43%
Joe Mack Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———43%
Janson Junk Over 4.5 Strikeouts
1%——42%
Total under 9.5
——43%40%
Owen Caissie Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———39%
Otto Lopez Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———38%
Jacob Gonzalez Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———38%
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 1.0
———35%
Total over 12.5
1%——30%
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 2.5
——31%28%
Henry Davis Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———29%
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 1.5
——39%19%
Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———28%
Leo Jimenez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———27%
Total under 5.5
———25%
Total over 11.5
1%——24%
Total under 6.5
———24%
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 4.5
———22%
Total under 7.5
——12%31%
Total under 8.5
——22%20%
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 3.5
1%——20%
Total under 4.5
———19%
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 1.5
1%—12%22%
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 2.5
1%—12%19%
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 5.5
———15%
Miami Marlins spread minus 6.5
———15%
Owen Caissie Over 0.5 Home Runs
———14%
Pittsburgh Pirates spread minus 4.5
———14%
Griffin Conine Over 0.5 Home Runs
——14%13%
Total under 3.5
———12%
Heriberto Hernandez Over 0.5 Home Runs
——13%10%
Esmerlyn Valdez Over 0.5 Home Runs
——14%9%
Total over 10.5
1%——11%
Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 Home Runs
——13%6%
Pittsburgh Pirates spread plus 3.5
———9%
Jacob Gonzalez Over 0.5 Home Runs
——51%9%
Spencer Horwitz Over 0.5 Home Runs
——51%9%
Agustin Ramirez Over 0.5 Home Runs
———8%
Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 Home Runs
——51%8%
Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 Home Runs
———8%
Javier Sanoja Over 0.5 Home Runs
———7%
Henry Davis Over 0.5 Home Runs
———7%
Joe Mack Over 0.5 Home Runs
——51%7%
Leo Jimenez Over 0.5 Home Runs
———7%
Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 Home Runs
——51%6%
Nick Gonzales Over 0.5 Home Runs
———6%
Otto Lopez Over 0.5 Home Runs
———6%
Ronny Simon Over 0.5 Home Runs
———6%
Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 Home Runs
———6%
Jake Mangum Over 0.5 Home Runs
———5%
Pittsburgh Pirates
1%1%0%2%
Carmen Mlodzinski Over 1.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Carmen Mlodzinski Over 2.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Carmen Mlodzinski Over 4.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Carmen Mlodzinski Over 5.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Carmen Mlodzinski Over 6.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Carmen Mlodzinski Under 1.5 Strikeouts
——1%—
Carmen Mlodzinski Under 2.5 Strikeouts
——1%—
Janson Junk Over 2.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Janson Junk Over 5.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Janson Junk Over 6.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Janson Junk Over 7.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Owen Caissie Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Brandon Lowe Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Esmerlyn Valdez Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Griffin Conine Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Heriberto Hernandez Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Jacob Gonzalez Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Jake Mangum Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Janson Junk Under 2.5 Strikeouts
——0%—
Javier Sanoja Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Joe Mack Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Otto Lopez Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Ronny Simon Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Spencer Horwitz Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 Home Runs
——0%—
Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Griffin Conine Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Jacob Gonzalez Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Jake Mangum Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Jake Mangum Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%99%
Jakob Marsee Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Joe Mack Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%99%
Otto Lopez Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Owen Caissie Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Ronny Simon Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Ronny Simon Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%99%
Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 Home Runs
————
Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 Home Runs
——0%99%

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
ProphetXProphetX
ProphetX Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread13.5%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Winner

Miami Marlins

95.9% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins (6:40 PM ET)

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Miami wins the Pittsburgh vs Miami professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 12, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Pittsburgh vs Miami professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 12, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins, scheduled for August 12 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins MLB game scheduled for 2026-08-12 at 6:40PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.

ProphetXProphetX
Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles
ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins (6:40 PM ET) prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins (6:40 PM ET) odds?

The last available prices are Miami Marlins: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 86.0¢ on Polymarket, 99.0¢ on ProphetX, 99.5¢ on Polymarket US; Pittsburgh Pirates: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 2.4¢ on ProphetX, 0.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins (6:40 PM ET) odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 13.5 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins (6:40 PM ET) prediction market payouts work?

For example, Miami Marlins at 95.9¢ implies about a 95.9% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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