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Live prediction market odds for San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.

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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / ProphetX

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San Diego Padres Wins: San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM ET)

MLB·Resolved 2026-08-31

This market resolved on 2026-08-31. San Diego Padres was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 98%.

About This Market

San Diego Padres vs.

San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM ET): MLB game held on 2026-08-31. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Final Closing Odds

4 platforms
Candidate
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
ProphetX
Michael King Over 4.5 Strikeouts
99%—100%—
Brady Singer Over 1.5 Strikeouts
99%———
Dustin Harris Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits
99%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits
99%———
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 RBIs
99%———
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits
99%———
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases
99%———
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits
99%———
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits
99%———
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits
99%———
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Total Bases
99%———
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Hits
99%———
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Total Bases
99%———
Manny Machado Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Manny Machado Over 4.5 Total Bases
99%———
Michael King Over 17.5 Pitcher Outs
99%———
Michael King Over 2.5 Strikeouts
99%———
Over 3.5 runs scored
99%———
Sal Stewart Over 0.5 Hits
99%———
Sal Stewart Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%———
Sal Stewart Over 1.5 Total Bases
99%———
Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Luis Campusano Under 0.5 Home Runs
———99%
Ty France Under 0.5 Home Runs
——99%99%
Dane Myers Under 0.5 Home Runs
———98%
Brady Singer Over 2.5 Strikeouts
98%———
Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
98%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases
97%———
San Diego PadresWINNER
99%95%99%97%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits
95%———
Jose Trevino Under 0.5 Home Runs
———94%
Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 Home Runs
——84%97%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs
——83%97%
San Diego Padres spread minus 3.5
99%——86%
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases
85%———
JJ Bleday Under 0.5 Home Runs
——81%99%
Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 Home Runs
——81%99%
San Diego Padres spread plus 2.5
——76%84%
Total under 10.5
——63%94%
Total under 9.5
——61%90%
Total over 4.5
99%——72%
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.5
——60%81%
Total under 8.5
——56%84%
Brady Singer Over 3.5 Strikeouts
99%——68%
Dane Myers Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———68%
Eugenio Suarez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———67%
Jose Trevino Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———66%
Jose Trevino Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———66%
Matt McLain Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———64%
Michael King Under 6.5 Strikeouts
——1%64%
San Diego Padres spread minus 2.5
99%—30%94%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———60%
Tyler Stephenson Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———60%
Sal Stewart Under 0.5 Home Runs
——20%99%
Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 Home Runs
——19%99%
Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 Home Runs
——19%99%
Manny Machado Under 0.5 Home Runs
——19%99%
Matt McLain Under 0.5 Home Runs
——19%99%
Luis Campusano Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———59%
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——58%
JJ Bleday Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———57%
Dustin Harris Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———57%
Brady Singer Under 4.5 Strikeouts
———56%
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
99%——56%
Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———56%
Ty France Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———56%
Hector Rodriguez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———56%
Total under 9.0
———55%
Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———54%
Sal Stewart Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———54%
Elly De La Cruz Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———53%
Michael King Over 5.5 Strikeouts
99%—51%54%
Hector Rodriguez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———52%
Michael King Over 3.5 Strikeouts
99%—52%—
Dustin Harris Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———51%
Cincinnati Reds spread plus 1.5
——66%36%
Total over 9.0
———51%
Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———51%
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———50%
Michael King Under 5.5 Strikeouts
——0%48%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
47%——48%
Manny Machado Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———48%
JJ Bleday Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———47%
Brady Singer Over 4.5 Strikeouts
99%——47%
Dane Myers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———47%
Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———47%
Luis Campusano Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———46%
Ty France Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———46%
Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———45%
Jose Trevino Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———44%
Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
32%——53%
Matt McLain Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———42%
Dane Myers Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———41%
Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———41%
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.5
99%—34%47%
Cincinnati Reds spread plus 2.5
——70%9%
Jose Trevino Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
———40%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs
39%———
Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBIs
36%———
Sal Stewart Over 1.5 Hits
36%———
Michael King Over 6.5 Strikeouts
1%—29%40%
Sal Stewart Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
34%———
Total over 13.5
1%——33%
Elly De La Cruz Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
33%———
Total over 8.5
1%—42%24%
Total over 11.5
1%——33%
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Total Bases
32%———
Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 RBIs
31%———
Cincinnati Reds spread minus 1.5
4%—40%30%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
30%———
Sal Stewart Over 2.5 Total Bases
30%———
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Total Bases
27%———
Total over 6.5
1%——26%
Total over 9.5
1%—39%14%
Sal Stewart Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
2%——51%
Total over 12.5
1%——25%
Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases
24%———
Total over 10.5
1%—37%9%
Cincinnati Reds spread minus 2.5
1%—24%19%
Elly De La Cruz Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
20%———
Elly De La Cruz Over 3.5 Total Bases
20%———
Sal Stewart Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
20%———
Sal Stewart Over 1.5 Home Runs
1%—20%—
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
19%———
Michael King Over 7.5 Strikeouts
1%—19%—
Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Hits
18%———
Sal Stewart Over 3.5 Total Bases
18%———
Total over 7.5
1%——17%
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 RBIs
17%———
Jackson Merrill Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
17%———
Elly De La Cruz Over 2.5 Total Bases
16%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 RBIs
16%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Total Bases
15%———
Sal Stewart Over 4.5 Total Bases
15%———
Cincinnati wins by over 3.5 runs
1%——15%
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%—19%10%
Ty France Over 0.5 Home Runs
——19%10%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs
5%—19%14%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Total Bases
14%———
JJ Bleday Over 0.5 Home Runs
——19%9%
Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 Home Runs
——19%9%
Sal Stewart Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%—20%7%
Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 Home Runs
——16%10%
Matt McLain Over 0.5 Home Runs
——19%7%
Sal Stewart Over 1.5 RBIs
13%———
Total over 5.5
1%——13%
Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 Home Runs
——19%6%
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Home Runs
5%—19%12%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Total Bases
12%———
Luis Campusano Over 0.5 Home Runs
———11%
Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 RBIs
11%———
Elly De La Cruz Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
11%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits
11%———
Sal Stewart Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
11%———
Elly De La Cruz Over 4.5 Total Bases
10%———
Manny Machado Over 5.5 Total Bases
10%———
Dustin Harris Over 0.5 Home Runs
———9%
Hector Rodriguez Over 0.5 Home Runs
———9%
Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 Home Runs
———9%
Dane Myers Over 0.5 Home Runs
———8%
Samad Taylor Over 0.5 Home Runs
———8%
Jose Trevino Over 0.5 Home Runs
———8%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 5.5 Total Bases
8%———
Cincinnati Reds
1%6%54%7%
Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Home Runs
1%——7%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 RBIs
7%———
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits
7%———
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 RBIs
7%———
Jackson Merrill Over 5.5 Total Bases
7%———
Manny Machado Over 1.5 RBIs
7%———
Elly De La Cruz Over 2.5 Hits
6%———
Jackson Merrill Over 4.5 Total Bases
6%———
Manny Machado Over 2.5 RBIs
6%———
Sal Stewart Over 2.5 Hits
6%———
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits
3%———
Michael King Over 10.5 Strikeouts
3%———
Michael King Over 8.5 Strikeouts
3%———
Michael King Over 9.5 Strikeouts
3%———
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Home Runs
3%—2%—
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Home Runs
1%—2%—
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Home Runs
2%—1%—
Brady Singer Over 17.5 Pitcher Outs
1%———
Brady Singer Over 5.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Brady Singer Over 6.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Brady Singer Over 7.5 Strikeouts
1%———
Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Hits
1%———
Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Home Runs
1%———
Sal Stewart Over 0.5 RBIs
1%———
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Hits
0%———

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
ProphetXProphetX
ProphetX Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread53.0%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Winner

San Diego Padres

97.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM ET)

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If San Diego wins the San Diego vs Cincinnati professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 31, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the San Diego vs Cincinnati professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 31, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for August 31 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds MLB game scheduled for 2026-08-31 at 6:40PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.

ProphetXProphetX
Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles
ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM ET) prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM ET) odds?

The last available prices are San Diego Padres: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.0¢ on Polymarket, 96.8¢ on ProphetX, 94.5¢ on Polymarket US; Cincinnati Reds: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 54.0¢ on Polymarket, 7.3¢ on ProphetX, 5.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM ET) odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 53.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM ET) prediction market payouts work?

For example, San Diego Padres at 97.3¢ implies about a 97.3% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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