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San Diego Padres vs.
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (10:15 PM ET): MLB game held on 2026-09-11. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Live prediction market odds for San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (10:15 PM ET). Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Novig and Polymarket and ProphetX.
MLB·Resolved 2026-09-11
This market resolved on 2026-09-11. San Diego Padres was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 93%.
San Diego Padres vs.
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (10:15 PM ET): MLB game held on 2026-09-11. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Christian Koss Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 96% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 4.5 | — | — | — | — | 94% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 2.5 | — | — | — | 100% | 92% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 3.5 | — | — | — | — | 90% |
San Diego PadresWINNER | 99% | 56% | 93% | 93% | 86% |
Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 88% |
Manny Machado Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 88% |
Rafael Devers Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 87% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 87% |
San Francisco Giants spread plus 2.5 | — | — | — | 100% | 84% |
San Francisco Giants spread plus 4.5 | — | — | — | — | 82% |
Total over 6.5 | 81% | — | — | 81% | 75% |
Ethan Salas Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 79% |
Total under 11.5 | — | — | — | — | 78% |
Ty France Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 73% |
San Francisco Giants spread plus 3.5 | — | — | — | — | 72% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 71% |
Total under 12.5 | — | — | 85% | — | 57% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 69% |
Christian Koss Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 68% |
Total under 10.5 | — | — | — | — | 67% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 1.5 | 99% | — | 63% | 100% | 70% |
Dustin Harris Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 63% |
Osleivis Basabe Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 63% |
Turner Hill Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 63% |
Christian Koss Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 63% |
Total over 7.5 | 64% | — | 61% | 52% | 66% |
Jonah Cox Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 63% |
Shay Whitcomb Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 63% |
Shay Whitcomb Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 62% |
Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 61% |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 60% |
Total over 8.0 | — | — | — | — | 60% |
Rafael Devers Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 58% |
Bryce Eldridge Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 58% |
Ty France Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 57% |
Total under 9.5 | — | — | 53% | — | 59% |
Total over 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 56% |
Total over 8.5 | 56% | — | — | 56% | 57% |
Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 54% |
Luis Campusano Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 54% |
Robbie Ray Under 4.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — | — | 54% |
Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 54% |
Andrew Knizner Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 54% |
San Francisco Giants spread minus 2.5 | 1% | — | — | 96% | 11% |
Luis Campusano Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 53% |
Total under 9.0 | — | — | — | — | 53% |
Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 52% |
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 52% |
Total over 9.0 | — | — | — | — | 52% |
Andrew Knizner Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 51% |
Total under 8.5 | — | — | — | 57% | 46% |
Anthony Molina Under 3.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — | — | 49% |
Total under 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 49% |
Manny Machado Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 47% |
Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 47% |
Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 47% |
Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 46% |
Total under 8.0 | — | — | — | — | 46% |
Ethan Salas Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 45% |
Christian Koss Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 45% |
Shay Whitcomb Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 45% |
San Diego Padres spread plus 1.5 | — | — | — | 3% | 86% |
Jonah Cox Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 44% |
Total over 9.5 | 44% | — | 47% | — | 43% |
Dustin Harris Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 43% |
Osleivis Basabe Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 43% |
Turner Hill Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 43% |
Shay Whitcomb Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 43% |
Total under 7.5 | — | — | 40% | 49% | 38% |
Christian Koss Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | 40% |
San Francisco Giants spread plus 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 36% |
San Francisco Giants spread plus 1.5 | — | — | 38% | 100% | 35% |
San Francisco Giants spread minus 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 34% |
Total under 6.5 | — | — | — | 35% | 29% |
Total over 12.5 | 1% | — | 16% | — | 47% |
San Francisco Giants spread minus 1.5 | 1% | — | — | 0% | 18% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 2.5 | 1% | — | — | 8% | 24% |
Total under 5.5 | — | — | — | — | 15% |
Total under 3.5 | — | — | — | — | 13% |
Ty France Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 13% |
San Diego Padres spread minus 4.5 | — | — | — | — | 13% |
Luis Campusano Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 13% |
Bryce Eldridge Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 12% |
San Francisco Giants | 12% | 44% | 8% | 12% | 18% |
Andrew Knizner Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 10% |
Shay Whitcomb Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 10% |
Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 10% |
San Francisco Giants spread minus 4.5 | — | — | — | — | 10% |
Osleivis Basabe Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 9% |
Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 9% |
Christian Koss Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 8% |
Jonah Cox Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 8% |
Dustin Harris Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | 8% |
Anthony Molina Over 0.5 Earned Runs | — | — | — | — | — |
Anthony Molina Over 1.5 Earned Runs | — | — | — | — | — |
Anthony Molina Over 1.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — | — | — |
Anthony Molina Over 15.5 Pitcher Outs | — | — | — | — | — |
Anthony Molina Over 2.5 Earned Runs | — | — | — | — | — |
Anthony Molina Over 2.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — | — | — |
Anthony Molina Over 3.5 Earned Runs | — | — | — | — | — |
Anthony Molina Over 3.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — | — | — |
Anthony Molina Over 4.5 Earned Runs | — | — | — | — | — |
Anthony Molina Over 4.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — | — | — |
Anthony Molina Over 5.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — | — | — |
Anthony Molina Over 6.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits | — | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Stolen Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits | — | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits | — | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 Total Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits | — | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 3.5 Total Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 4.5 Total Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 5.5 Total Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits | — | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Stolen Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits | — | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits | — | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 2.5 Total Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Hits | — | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 3.5 Total Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Jackson Merrill Over 4.5 Total Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits | — | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 0.5 Stolen Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits | — | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits | — | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 2.5 Total Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Hits | — | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 3.5 Total Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Manny Machado Over 4.5 Total Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Over 2.5 runs scored | — | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Hits | — | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Stolen Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits | — | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Home Runs | — | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 2.5 Hits | — | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 2.5 Total Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 3.5 Total Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | — | — | — | — | — |
Rafael Devers Over 4.5 Total Bases | — | — | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 0.5 Earned Runs | — | — | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 1.5 Earned Runs | — | — | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 15.5 Pitcher Outs | — | — | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 2.5 Earned Runs | — | — | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 2.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 3.5 Earned Runs | — | — | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 3.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 4.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 5.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 6.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 7.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — | — | — |
Robbie Ray Over 8.5 Strikeouts | — | — | — | — | — |
San Diego Padres spread minus 3.5 | — | — | — | — | — |
San Francisco Giants spread minus 3.5 | — | — | — | — | — |
Total over 10.5 | — | — | — | — | — |
Total over 11.5 | — | — | — | — | — |
Total over 3.5 | — | — | — | — | — |
Total over 4.5 | — | — | — | — | — |
Total over 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — |
San Diego Padres
85.4% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.
KalshiIf San Diego wins the San Diego vs San Francisco professional baseball game originally scheduled for Sep 11, 2026 at 10:15 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the San Diego vs San Francisco professional baseball game originally scheduled for Sep 11, 2026 at 10:15 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
NovigSan Diego Padres in San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants (MLB); settled by Novig.
If the contract cannot be settled on the stated outcome, Novig settles it at fair market value (FMV) instead of refunding it.
PolymarketIn the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants, scheduled for September 11 at 10:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to the winner of the San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants MLB game scheduled for 2026-09-11 at 10:15PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.
Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are San Diego Padres: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 93.3¢ on Polymarket, 86.3¢ on ProphetX, 56.0¢ on Polymarket US, 92.5¢ on Novig; San Francisco Giants: 11.5¢ on Kalshi, 12.0¢ on Polymarket, 18.3¢ on ProphetX, 44.0¢ on Polymarket US, 7.5¢ on Novig. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 43.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, San Diego Padres at 85.4¢ implies about a 85.4% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.