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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / ProphetX

Tampa Bay Rays Wins: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM ET)

MLB·Resolved 2026-08-09

This market resolved on 2026-08-09. Tampa Bay Rays was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.

Final Closing Odds

4 platforms

Candidate
Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	100%	—
Richie Palacios Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	100%	—
Taylor Walls Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	100%	—
Cole Young Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	100%	—
Josh Naylor Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	99%	—
Liam Hicks Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	99%	—
Taylor Ward Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	99%	—
Victor Mesa Jr. Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	99%	—
Cedric Mullins Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	99%	—
Jonathan Aranda Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	99%	—
Randy Arozarena Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	99%	—
Dominic Canzone Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	99%	—
Cole Young Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—
Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—
Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	—
Over 2.5 runs scored	99%	—	—	—
Cal Raleigh Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	98%	—
Junior Caminero Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	98%	—
Over 1.5 runs scored	98%	—	—	—
Seattle Mariners spread plus 3.5	—	—	—	98%
Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	98%	—
Tampa Bay RaysWINNER	99%	97%	100%	98%
Colt Emerson Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	97%
Richie Palacios Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	95%	99%
Weston Wilson Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	—	96%
Cole Young Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	93%	98%
Liam Hicks Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	93%	98%
Taylor Walls Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	95%	99%
Josh Naylor Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	93%	97%
Total under 9.5	—	—	97%	91%
Taylor Ward Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	90%	96%
Tampa Bay Rays spread plus 1.5	—	—	96%	90%
Total under 13.5	—	—	—	93%
Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	90%	95%
Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	89%	96%
Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	89%	95%
Tampa Bay Rays spread plus 2.5	—	—	100%	92%
Tampa Bay Rays spread minus 1.5	99%	—	94%	89%
Tampa Bay Rays spread plus 3.5	—	—	—	91%
Seattle Mariners spread plus 4.5	—	—	—	91%
Emerson Hancock Over 2.5 Strikeouts	99%	—	91%	—
Ian Seymour Over 3.5 Strikeouts	99%	—	91%	—
Ian Seymour Over 4.5 Strikeouts	99%	—	91%	—
Tampa Bay Rays spread plus 4.5	—	—	—	90%
Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	86%	94%
Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	87%	93%
Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	86%	93%
Tampa Bay Rays spread minus 2.5	99%	—	99%	89%
Total under 10.5	—	—	—	89%
Total under 11.5	—	—	—	89%
Total under 6.5	—	—	—	89%
Total under 12.5	—	—	—	88%
Julio Rodriguez Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	88%	—
Total under 7.5	—	—	84%	90%
Total over 3.5	99%	—	—	87%
Total under 5.5	—	—	—	85%
Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	79%	90%
Junior Caminero Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	79%	88%
Total over 4.5	99%	—	—	81%
Emerson Hancock Under 3.5 Strikeouts	—	—	81%	—
Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	1%	—	—	75%
Total under 8.5	—	—	63%	86%
Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 Home Runs	—	—	48%	99%
Emerson Hancock Under 4.5 Strikeouts	—	—	56%	82%
Tampa Bay Rays spread plus 1.0	—	—	—	69%
Ian Seymour Under 5.5 Strikeouts	—	—	52%	84%
Ian Seymour Over 5.5 Strikeouts	99%	—	49%	84%
Cedric Mullins Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	66%
Josh Naylor Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	66%
Emerson Hancock Over 4.5 Strikeouts	1%	—	44%	87%
Jhonny Pereda Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	65%
Junior Caminero Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	64%
Cal Raleigh Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	63%
Total under 8.0	—	—	—	62%
Cole Young Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	61%
Julio Rodriguez Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	61%	—	—	—
Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	60%
Julio Rodriguez Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	60%
Taylor Ward Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	60%
Victor Mesa Jr. Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	1%	—	—	60%
Colt Emerson Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	1%	—	—	59%
Liam Hicks Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	59%
Richie Palacios Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	59%
Tampa Bay Rays spread minus 1.0	—	—	—	59%
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	58%
Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	57%
Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	57%
Taylor Walls Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	56%
Victor Mesa Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	56%
Weston Wilson Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	1%	—	—	56%
Cole Young Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	55%
Taylor Walls Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	55%
Total under 7.0	—	—	—	55%
Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	0%	—	—	55%
Weston Wilson Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	55%
Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	52%	—	—	58%
Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	1%	—	—	54%
Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	54%
Leo Rivas Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	54%
Leo Rivas Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	54%
Total under 9.0	—	—	—	54%
Randy Arozarena Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	53%
Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	53%
Colt Emerson Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	52%
Liam Hicks Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	52%
Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	52%
Dominic Canzone Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	51%
Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	51%
Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	51%
Total over 9.0	—	—	—	51%
Total over 7.0	—	—	—	50%
Taylor Ward Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	50%
Seattle Mariners spread plus 1.0	—	—	—	46%
Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	44%	—	—	48%
Cedric Mullins Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	99%	—	—	46%
Jhonny Pereda Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	45%
Total over 8.0	—	—	—	44%
Jonathan Aranda Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	—	—	—	44%
Josh Naylor Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	41%	—	—	46%
Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	29%	—	—	50%
Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	37%	—	—	40%
Seattle Mariners spread minus 1.0	—	—	—	37%
Total over 8.5	1%	—	37%	25%
Randy Arozarena Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	29%	—	—	—
Richie Palacios Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	2%	—	—	52%
Cal Raleigh Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	27%	—	—	—
Total under 3.5	—	—	—	24%
Seattle Mariners spread plus 2.5	—	—	1%	23%
Total over 12.5	—	—	—	23%
Total over 10.5	1%	—	—	22%
Total over 6.5	1%	—	—	22%
Total under 4.5	—	—	—	22%
Seattle Mariners spread minus 4.5	—	—	—	21%
Total over 11.5	1%	—	—	21%
Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Home Runs	3%	—	21%	22%
Junior Caminero Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	21%	—	—	—
Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 Home Runs	1%	—	21%	20%
Julio Rodriguez Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	20%	—	—	—
Total over 5.5	1%	—	—	20%
Seattle Mariners spread minus 3.5	1%	—	—	19%
Randy Arozarena Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	19%	—	—	—
Total over 7.5	1%	—	16%	21%
Jonathan Aranda Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	17%	—	—	—
Dominic Canzone Over 0.5 Home Runs	1%	—	14%	18%
Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 Home Runs	1%	—	14%	17%
Julio Rodriguez Over 0.5 Home Runs	1%	—	14%	17%
Cal Raleigh Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	15%	—	—	—
Seattle Mariners spread plus 1.5	—	—	6%	22%
Colt Emerson Over 0.5 Home Runs	1%	—	—	14%
Seattle Mariners spread minus 2.5	1%	—	0%	13%
Tampa Bay Rays spread minus 4.5	—	—	—	13%
Taylor Ward Over 0.5 Home Runs	1%	—	10%	14%
Total over 9.5	1%	—	3%	20%
Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 Home Runs	2%	—	12%	14%
Total over 13.5	—	—	—	11%
Yandy Diaz Over 0.5 Home Runs	4%	—	52%	11%
Julio Rodriguez Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	11%	—	—	—
Junior Caminero Over 3.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	11%	—	—	—
Junior Caminero Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	11%	—	—	—
Victor Mesa Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs	4%	—	11%	15%
Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 Home Runs	2%	—	11%	15%
Emerson Hancock Under 2.5 Strikeouts	—	—	10%	—
Ian Seymour Under 3.5 Strikeouts	—	—	10%	—
Ian Seymour Under 4.5 Strikeouts	—	—	10%	—
Weston Wilson Over 0.5 Home Runs	3%	—	—	15%
Cole Young Over 1.5 Home Runs	9%	—	0%	—
Seattle Mariners spread minus 1.5	1%	—	4%	14%
Josh Naylor Over 0.5 Home Runs	4%	—	8%	13%
Liam Hicks Over 0.5 Home Runs	4%	—	8%	12%
Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 Home Runs	2%	—	12%	—
Tampa Bay Rays spread minus 3.5	1%	—	—	7%
Cal Raleigh Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	7%	—	—	—
Cole Young Over 0.5 Home Runs	2%	—	7%	12%
Taylor Walls Over 0.5 Home Runs	1%	—	5%	8%
Seattle Mariners	1%	3%	100%	9%
Richie Palacios Over 0.5 Home Runs	3%	—	6%	11%
Chandler Simpson Over 0.5 Home Runs	2%	—	2%	—
Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 Home Runs	2%	—	1%	—
Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Home Runs	2%	—	2%	—
Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 Home Runs	2%	—	2%	—
Emerson Hancock Over 3.5 Strikeouts	1%	—	—	—
Jonathan Aranda Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	1%	—	—	—
Julio Rodriguez Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	1%	—	—	—
Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	1%	—	—	—
Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	1%	—
Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 Home Runs	1%	—	1%	—
Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Home Runs	1%	—	1%	—
Cedric Mullins Over 1.5 Home Runs	1%	—	1%	—
Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Home Runs	1%	—	1%	—
Josh Naylor Over 1.5 Home Runs	1%	—	1%	—
Liam Hicks Over 1.5 Home Runs	1%	—	1%	—
Richie Palacios Over 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	0%	—
Taylor Walls Over 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	0%	—
Taylor Ward Over 1.5 Home Runs	0%	—	1%	—
Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 Home Runs	—	—	0%	—
Colt Emerson Over 1.5 Home Runs	0%	—	—	—
Jonathan Aranda Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	0%	—	—	—
Randy Arozarena Over 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs	0%	—	—	—
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Home Runs	1%	—	99%	—

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Seattle wins the Tampa Bay vs Seattle professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 9, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Tampa Bay vs Seattle professional baseball game originally scheduled for Aug 9, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days). If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi Rules

Polymarket

Primary Rule

In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners, scheduled for August 9 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Polymarket US

Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners MLB game scheduled for 2026-08-09 at 4:10PM ET. Extra innings are included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, or suspended and not rescheduled to a date within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from MLB.

ProphetX

Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles

ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM ET) prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM ET) odds?

The last available prices are Tampa Bay Rays: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 98.0¢ on ProphetX, 97.0¢ on Polymarket US; Seattle Mariners: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 9.3¢ on ProphetX, 3.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM ET) odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 98.9 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM ET) prediction market payouts work?

For example, Tampa Bay Rays at 98.5¢ implies about a 98.5% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Tampa Bay Rays Wins: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM ET)

Tampa Bay Rays Wins: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM ET)

About This Market

Price History

Final Closing Odds

Resolution Oracles

Frequently Asked Questions

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Tampa Bay Rays Wins: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM ET)

Tampa Bay Rays Wins: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM ET)

About This Market

Price History

Final Closing Odds

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM ET)

Frequently Asked Questions

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