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Live prediction market odds for NL Hank Aaron Award Winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket

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NL Hank Aaron Award Winner?

2026-11-13

Best price · tap to trade

Pete Crow-Armstrong99¢1.01xKalshiShohei Ohtani4¢25.00xKalshiFernando Tatis Jr1¢100.00xKalshi
Compare all 10 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Pete Crow-Armstrong about a 97.8% chance. Shohei Ohtani follows at 1.6%, Fernando Tatis Jr follows at 0.6%, and Ketel Marte follows at 0.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.7 percentage points.

Traders give Pete Crow-Armstrong about a 97.8% chance. Shohei Ohtani follows at 1.6%, Fernando Tatis Jr follows at 0.6%, and Ketel Marte follows at 0.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.7 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the NL Hank Aaron Award Winner for 2026. This award recognizes the top offensive performer in the National League, making it a key indicator of player success and fan engagement in Major League Baseball.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
PC
Pete Crow-Armstrong
98%
Kalshi99¢
Polymarket99¢
Kalshi1.01x99¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
97.5%96¢99¢1¢4¢
PolymarketPolymarket
98.2%97¢99¢1¢3¢
SO
Shohei Ohtani
2%
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket3¢
Kalshi25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.5%1¢4¢96¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.8%1¢3¢97¢99¢
FT
Fernando Tatis Jr
single venue1%
Kalshi1¢
—
Kalshi100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢1¢99¢100¢
KM
Ketel Marte
single venue1%
Kalshi1¢
—
Kalshi100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢1¢99¢100¢
MB
Mookie Betts
single venue1%
Kalshi1¢
—
Kalshi100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢1¢99¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong is the center fielder for the Chicago Cubs. He debuted in MLB in 2023 and won a Gold Glove Award in 2025. His exceptional performance makes him a strong candidate for the NL Hank Aaron Award.

About Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani is a designated hitter and pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He won the National League Most Valuable Player award in 2024, leading the league with 54 home runs and 130 RBIs. His exceptional performance makes him a strong contender for the National League Hank Aaron Award.

About Fernando Tatis Jr

Fernando Tatis Jr. is the right fielder for the San Diego Padres. He won the Gold Glove Award in 2023 for his exceptional defensive performance. His outstanding fielding makes him a strong contender for the NL Hank Aaron Award.

About Ketel Marte

Ketel Marte is the starting second baseman for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He was named the National League Championship Series Most Valuable Player in 2023. His consistent performance makes him a strong contender for the NL Hank Aaron Award.

About Mookie Betts

Mookie Betts is the starting second baseman for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He previously played right field for the Boston Red Sox, winning the 2018 American League Most Valuable Player award. His consistent performance and leadership make him a strong contender for the National League Hank Aaron Award.

About Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper is the current first baseman and outfielder for the Philadelphia Phillies. He has been named the National League Most Valuable Player twice, in 2015 and 2021. Harper is relevant to this prediction market as a potential candidate for the 2026 NL Hank Aaron Award, which honors the best offensive performer in the National League.

About Francisco Lindor

Francisco Lindor is the shortstop for the New York Mets. He joined the Mets in 2021 after a trade from the Cleveland Indians. Lindor's consistent performance makes him a strong contender for the NL Hank Aaron Award.

About Juan Soto

Juan Soto is an outfielder for the New York Mets. He previously played for the San Diego Padres and New York Yankees. His consistent performance makes him a strong contender for the NL Hank Aaron Award.

About Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber is the designated hitter for the Philadelphia Phillies. He led the National League with 56 home runs and 132 RBIs in 2025, finishing second in NL MVP voting. His exceptional performance in 2025 makes him a strong contender for the NL Hank Aaron Award.

About Ronald Acuña Jr

Ronald Acuña Jr. is an outfielder for the Atlanta Braves. He won the 2023 National League Most Valuable Player award. He is a candidate for the 2026 NL Hank Aaron Award.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
the Governing League
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.7%
Platforms2
Candidates10
Leader

Pete Crow-Armstrong

97.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: NL Hank Aaron Award Winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Shohei Ohtani wins the Pro Baseball National League Hank Aaron Award in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
the Governing League

Frequently Asked Questions

What criteria are used to determine the NL Hank Aaron Award Winner?

The NL Hank Aaron Award is given to the player deemed the best offensive performer in the National League. Factors include batting average, home runs, and overall contributions to the team's success.

When is the NL Hank Aaron Award announced?

The NL Hank Aaron Award is typically announced in November, following the conclusion of the MLB regular season. This timing allows for a complete evaluation of player performances throughout the season.

How do prediction markets influence perceptions of player performance?

Prediction markets aggregate opinions on player outcomes, reflecting collective sentiment and expectations. Shifts in odds can indicate changing perceptions based on player statistics, injuries, or other relevant news.

What does the NL Hank Aaron Award Winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest NL Hank Aaron Award Winner odds?

The latest available prices are Pete Crow-Armstrong: 97.5¢ on Kalshi, 98.2¢ on Polymarket; Shohei Ohtani: 2.5¢ on Kalshi, 0.8¢ on Polymarket; Fernando Tatis Jr: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket; Ketel Marte: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction Market Track Record

Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in 2025LOSTPre-event: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM ET)LOSTPre-event: 0%Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (9:10 PM ET)LOSTPre-event: 0%Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (4:10 PM ET)LOSTPre-event: 0%Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees (7:05 PM ET)LOSTPre-event: 0%

Prediction Market Track Record

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET)LOSTPre-event: 0%Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET)LOSTPre-event: 0%Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres (8:40 PM ET)LOSTPre-event: 0%Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres (4:10 PM ET)LOSTPre-event: 0%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Top 5 Most Searched People on Google in 2025

Resolved

2025-12-31

LOSTShohei Ohtani
Pre-event: 3%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM ET)

Resolved

2026-07-10

LOSTKetel Marte
Pre-event: 0%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (9:10 PM ET)

Resolved

2026-07-11

LOSTKetel Marte
Pre-event: 0%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (4:10 PM ET)

Resolved

2026-07-12

LOSTKetel Marte
Pre-event: 0%

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees (7:05 PM ET)

Resolved

2026-07-17

LOSTShohei Ohtani
Pre-event: 0%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET)

Resolved

2026-07-09

LOSTKetel Marte
Pre-event: 0%

Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET)

Resolved

2026-07-10

LOSTFernando Tatis Jr
Pre-event: 0%

Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres (8:40 PM ET)

Resolved

2026-07-11

LOSTFernando Tatis Jr
Pre-event: 0%

Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres (4:10 PM ET)

Resolved

2026-07-12

LOSTFernando Tatis Jr
Pre-event: 0%

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 PM ET)

Resolved

2026-07-17

LOSTKetel Marte
Pre-event: 0%

Prediction Market Track Record

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres (9:40 PM ET)LOSTPre-event: 0%Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM ET)LOSTPre-event: 0%Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (9:10 PM ET)LOSTPre-event: 0%Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (4:10 PM ET)LOSTPre-event: 0%St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 PM ET)LOSTPre-event: 0%

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Crow-Armstrong Hits 86% to Win NL Hank Aaron AwardA 38-point rise since August 22 reflects sustained second-half offense. No competitor holds more than a fraction of the remaining 14%.Sep 6, 2026Crow-Armstrong Hits 86% for NL Hank Aaron Award After 38-Point RunNo NL challenger holds meaningful market share. The 38-point climb since late August was built on cumulative production, not a single game.Sep 4, 2026Crow-Armstrong's Hank Aaron Award Odds Jump 39 Points on Two-Homer GameHis August 29 two-homer game against the Reds reversed a slump-driven selloff entirely, pushing him to 74% on Kalshi and Polymarket within 72 hours.Aug 31, 2026Crow-Armstrong's Hank Aaron Award Odds Fall 13 Points as Cubs Go 4-8Cubs' 4-8 stretch pushed Crow-Armstrong's NL Hank Aaron Award probability from 48% to 35%, with no rival absorbing the displaced probability.Aug 29, 2026
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily fading Kyle Schwarber

Smart Money Consensus$134
$134No
Smart Traders Split1
1No
PolymarketBuy No at 100¢

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Shohei Ohtani
No$133 · 1 whale
Kyle Schwarber
No$134 · 1 whale

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow