Oscar Winner: Best International Feature Film
Live prediction market odds for Oscar Winner: Best International Feature Film. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give La Bola Negra about a 84.3% chance. Possible Love follows at 5.2%, All of a Sudden follows at 3.7%, and Fjord follows at 2.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.7 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Possible Love has won Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.
PolymarketThe Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best International Feature Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best International Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The winner is determined by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences during the annual Academy Awards ceremony. The film receiving the most votes from the Academy members in this category wins.
Nominations can significantly impact the odds as they indicate a film's recognition and potential favor among Academy voters. As films gain or lose nominations, traders adjust their expectations and bets accordingly.
Markets for the Oscar Winner: Best International Feature Film close on the day of the Academy Awards ceremony. This deadline is crucial as it allows traders to place bets until the final moments before the announcement.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are La Bola Negra: 84.5¢ on Kalshi, 84.0¢ on Polymarket; Possible Love: 6.5¢ on Kalshi, 3.9¢ on Polymarket; All of a Sudden: 3.5¢ on Kalshi, 3.9¢ on Polymarket; Fjord: 3.0¢ on Kalshi, 2.9¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
