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Live prediction market odds for Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket

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Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor

2027-03-14

Best price · tap to trade

Paul Giamatti35¢2.86xKalshiRobert Pattinson15¢6.67xKalshiSam Rockwell14¢7.14xKalshi
Compare all 22 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Paul Giamatti about a 36.5% chance. Robert Pattinson follows at 16.1%, Sam Rockwell follows at 10.2%, and Edward Norton follows at 8.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 6.4 percentage points.

Traders give Paul Giamatti about a 36.5% chance. Robert Pattinson follows at 16.1%, Sam Rockwell follows at 10.2%, and Edward Norton follows at 8.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 6.4 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Oscar winner for Best Supporting Actor. This award can significantly influence an actor's career trajectory and is often seen as a reflection of industry trends and audience preferences.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
PG
Paul GiamattiARB
37%
Kalshi35¢
Polymarket40¢
Kalshi2.86x35¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
35.0%34¢35¢65¢66¢
PolymarketPolymarket
38.0%38¢40¢60¢62¢
RP
Robert Pattinson
16%
Kalshi15¢
Polymarket20¢
Kalshi6.67x15¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
15.0%14¢15¢85¢86¢
PolymarketPolymarket
17.3%15¢20¢80¢85¢
SR
Sam Rockwell
10%
Kalshi14¢
Polymarket11¢
Kalshi7.14x14¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
10.0%10¢14¢86¢90¢
PolymarketPolymarket
10.3%4¢11¢90¢96¢
EN
Edward Norton
8%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket15¢
Kalshi14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.0%6¢7¢93¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
9.3%3¢15¢85¢97¢
MT
Miles Teller
4%
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket14¢
Kalshi100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
7.4%1¢14¢86¢99¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Paul Giamatti

Paul Giamatti is an American actor known for his versatility across film and television. He received an Academy Award nomination for Best Supporting Actor for his role in 'Cinderella Man' (2005). His extensive career includes acclaimed performances in 'Sideways' (2004) and the HBO miniseries 'John Adams' (2008).

About Robert Pattinson

Robert Pattinson is an English actor and producer. He gained prominence for his role as Edward Cullen in the 'Twilight' series and has since starred in films like 'The Batman' and 'Mickey 17'. His diverse performances and critical acclaim make him a strong contender for Best Supporting Actor.

About Sam Rockwell

Sam Rockwell is an American actor known for his versatile performances in film and theater. He won the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor for his role in 'Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri' (2017). Rockwell has also received critical acclaim for his portrayal of Bob Fosse in the FX miniseries 'Fosse/Verdon' (2019) and earned a Tony Award nomination for his performance in the Broadway revival of 'American Buffalo' (2022).

About John Goodman

John Goodman is an American actor known for his roles in film, television, and theater. He has received various accolades including a Primetime Emmy Award, a Golden Globe Award, and a Screen Actors Guild Award. Goodman is recognized for his collaborations with the Coen brothers, acting in films such as Raising Arizona (1987), Barton Fink (1991), The Big Lebowski (1998), O Brother, Where Art Thou? (2000), and Inside Llewyn Davis (2013).

About Tom Holland

Tom Holland is an English actor and producer. He is best known for portraying Peter Parker/Spider-Man in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Holland has received numerous accolades, including a BAFTA Award and three Saturn Awards.

About Jeremy Strong

Jeremy Strong is an American actor known for his role as Kendall Roy in HBO's 'Succession.' He won a Golden Globe Award for Best Actor in a Television Series – Drama for this performance. His extensive experience in both television and theater makes him a strong contender for the Best Supporting Actor category.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread6.4%
Platforms2
Candidates22
Leader

Paul Giamatti

36.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Daniel Craig has won Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Best Supporting Actor Oscar?

Factors include previous award wins, critical acclaim for performances, and overall popularity among audiences. Additionally, industry buzz and campaign efforts by studios can sway opinions.

When is the Oscar ceremony for this category scheduled?

The Oscar ceremony for Best Supporting Actor is scheduled for March 14, 2027. This date is crucial for actors and their respective films as it marks a significant moment in the awards season.

How do prediction markets work for award categories like this?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their predictions of outcomes, such as award winners. Prices fluctuate based on demand and the perceived likelihood of each nominee winning.

What does the Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor odds?

The latest available prices are Paul Giamatti: 35.0¢ on Kalshi, 38.0¢ on Polymarket; Robert Pattinson: 15.0¢ on Kalshi, 17.3¢ on Polymarket; Sam Rockwell: 10.0¢ on Kalshi, 10.3¢ on Polymarket; Edward Norton: 7.0¢ on Kalshi, 9.3¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Malkovich's Venice Win Halved Norton's Supporting Actor OddsNorton fell from 20% to 10% in 72 hours, not from a rival in his own category. Giamatti now leads Supporting Actor at 37–39%.Sep 24, 2026Sam Rockwell's Best Supporting Actor 2027 Odds Quadruple to 16%Rockwell's implied probability jumped from 4% to 16% in three days with no confirmed project. His 2018 win in the same category is the likely anchor for the move.Sep 22, 2026Giamatti Jumps to 45% for Best Supporting Actor With No Public CatalystHis win probability climbed 9 points in three days. A separate Kalshi nomination market already prices him at 76%, second only to Sam Rockwell at 85%.Sep 8, 2026Giamatti Jumps 20 Points in Three Days to Lead Best Supporting ActorGiamatti rose from 34% to 54% with no confirmed catalyst. Edward Norton leads nomination odds at 96%, the highest in the field.Sep 6, 2026