Traders give Joe Burrow about a 52.8% chance. Kirk Cousins follows at 25.1%, Jalen Hurts follows at 5.0%, and Brock Purdy follows at 7.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 7.9 percentage points.
Joe Burrow is the quarterback for the Cincinnati Bengals. He led the Bengals to their first Super Bowl appearance in 2022. Burrow holds the NFL record for career completion percentage at 68.9%.
About Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins is the starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings. He previously played for the Vikings from 2018 to 2023, earning three Pro Bowl selections. Cousins has a reputation for consistent performance and leadership, making him a key asset to the Vikings' offense.
About Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy is the starting quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers. He led the team to an NFC Championship Game appearance in his rookie season and set the franchise's single-season passing yards record in 2023. Purdy holds the NFL record for the highest career passer rating at 104.8.
About Jared Goff
Jared Goff is the starting quarterback for the Detroit Lions. He led the Los Angeles Rams to Super Bowl LIII in 2019. Goff has been selected to five Pro Bowls and has set multiple NFL records.
About Jordan Love
Jordan Love is the starting quarterback for the Green Bay Packers. He was drafted by the Packers in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Love has led the Packers to the playoffs in each of his first three seasons as a starter, including a playoff victory over the Dallas Cowboys in 2023.
About Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence is the starting quarterback for the Jacksonville Jaguars. He was selected first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft and led the team to its first division title since 2017. Lawrence has been named a team captain each year and was selected to the Pro Bowl in 2022.
About Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford is the quarterback for the Los Angeles Rams. He led the Rams to a Super Bowl victory in 2022. Stafford's consistent performance and leadership make him a key figure in the NFL.
About Jayden Daniels
Jayden Daniels is the starting quarterback for the Washington Commanders in the NFL. He won the Heisman Trophy in 2023 after leading LSU with 50 touchdowns and nearly 5,000 total yards. Daniels' exceptional performance in college football has established him as a leading quarterback in the NFL.
About Josh Allen
Josh Allen is the starting quarterback for the Buffalo Bills in the NFL. He was named NFL Most Valuable Player in 2024 and has led the Bills to multiple playoff appearances. Allen is renowned for his dual-threat capabilities, holding the NFL record for most career rushing touchdowns by a quarterback.
Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases
Market Rulebook: Pro Football: 2026-27 Passing Touchdowns Leader
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi
Primary Rule
If Patrick Mahomes leads Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Edge Cases
The participant must have the highest total of the specified statistic across the entire season type as documented by the official league statistics. Only statistics from games officially designated as part of the specified season type are included. Preseason, postseason, playoff, exhibition, friendly, or all-star statistics are excluded unless the season_type specifically includes them. If a participant competes for multiple teams during the season, statistics from all teams are combined. Participants who do not play any games due to injury, suspension, retirement, or other reasons resolve to No. League minimum qualification thresholds apply. In case of exact ties where the league does not declare a single winner, tied participants receive a proportional payout. Statistical corrections are only considered if made before the expiration date.
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This market will resolve in favor of the player that finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player with more passing yards during the 2026-27 NFL regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with a higher completion percentage during the 2026-27 NFL regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the 2026-27 NFL season concludes early, is shortened, or is truncated for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available NFL statistics for completed games.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it is unclear which player led the NFL in passing touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the Passing Touchdowns Leader determined?
The Passing Touchdowns Leader is determined by the total number of passing touchdowns thrown by a player during the regular NFL season. Only touchdowns scored in official games count towards this total.
What factors can influence the odds in this market?
Odds can be influenced by player statistics, injury reports, and team performance throughout the season. Significant events such as trades or changes in coaching staff may also impact market dynamics.
When does trading close for this market?
Trading for this market closes on January 12, 2027. After this date, no further bets can be placed, and the market will resolve based on the final statistics of the season.
What does the Pro Football: 2026-27 Passing Touchdowns Leader prediction market track?
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
What are the latest Pro Football: 2026-27 Passing Touchdowns Leader odds?
The latest available prices are Joe Burrow: 55.5¢ on Kalshi, 50.0¢ on Polymarket; Kirk Cousins: 22.5¢ on Kalshi, 27.7¢ on Polymarket; Jalen Hurts: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 8.9¢ on Polymarket; Brock Purdy: 8.5¢ on Kalshi, 6.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.