About This Market
Traders give Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) about a 69.5% chance. Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) follows at 26.9%, Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) follows at 1.6%, and Slack / disinflation follows at 0.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.8 percentage points.
Traders give Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) about a 69.5% chance. Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) follows at 26.9%, Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) follows at 1.6%, and Slack / disinflation follows at 0.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.8 percentage points.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the state of the economy at the end of 2026. Economic indicators such as inflation rates, unemployment levels, and growth projections will heavily influence market sentiment and investor confidence leading up to this date.
