State of the economy at the end of 2026
Live prediction market odds for State of the economy at the end of 2026. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) about a 68.5% chance. Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) follows at 30.7%, Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) follows at 0.5%, and Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) follows at 0.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.5 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.
Key indicators include inflation rates, unemployment levels, and overall economic growth. These factors will help determine the economic conditions at the end of 2026.
Understanding the economy's status at that time can impact policy decisions, investment strategies, and consumer behavior. It also sets the stage for future economic planning and recovery efforts.
Prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions and data to forecast future economic conditions. They provide insights into investor sentiment and expectations based on real-time information.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%): 66.3¢ on Kalshi, 70.7¢ on Polymarket; Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%): 32.6¢ on Kalshi, 28.8¢ on Polymarket; Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%): 0.9¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket; Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%): 0.6¢ on Kalshi, 0.2¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.
Trader up $92.3K lifetime bought $1.3K of No at 73¢
1d agoWill the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?Trade on Kalshi 
