Live prediction market odds for Ajax Amsterdam vs. FC Thun. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Conference League Game starts Listed
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Traders give Ajax Amsterdam about a 86.0% chance. Draw follows at 54.3% and FC Thun follows at 48.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 87.0 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Tie is the result of the Ajax vs Thun professional Conference League soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 26, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Ajax vs Thun professional Conference League soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 26, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties). If the game ends in a tie, the market called "Tie" resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
PolymarketIn the upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League game between AFC Ajax and FC Thun, originally scheduled for Thursday, November 26, 2026 at 12:45 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve to "Yes". The following abandonment rules apply only when this market's outcome was not already definitively determined under its rules before abandonment. If the game is abandoned, this market will resolve according to the official ruling of the governing body or event organizers on the abandoned game. If a result is awarded by Saturday, November 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that determines this market's outcome, this market will resolve based on the awarded result, regardless of the score as played. If no such result is awarded and the result as played at the time of abandonment is declared to stand by Saturday, November 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the game as played. If the game is replayed or resumed from the point of abandonment and has an official result by Saturday, November 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the completed result. In any other case, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor names, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences in a team's or player's name will not affect resolution, provided the intended team or player can be clearly and uniquely identified as a participant in the listed fixture or competition. If a listed name has no reasonable connection to any participant, or could reasonably refer to more than one participant such that the intended team or player cannot be determined, this market will resolve as it would if the listed fixture had been canceled entirely; a listed participant who cannot be identified does not count as inactive or absent. The primary resolution source for this market will be official match information from UEFA Europa Conference League (https://www.uefa.com/). If the governing body or event organizers have not published final statistics within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Ajax Amsterdam: 80.0¢ on Kalshi, 92.0¢ on Polymarket; Draw: 14.5¢ on Kalshi, 94.0¢ on Polymarket; FC Thun: 5.0¢ on Kalshi, 92.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 87.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Ajax Amsterdam at 86.0¢ implies about a 86.0% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.
