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PicksSmart MoneyArbitragePromos

Live prediction market odds for Luca Borando vs. Ian Escuza. Compare prices across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Novig / Polymarket

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Luca Borando vs. Ian Escuza

2026-09-29

Best price · tap to trade

Luca Borando53¢1.89xNovigIan Escuza48¢2.08xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Luca Borando about a 51.7% chance. Ian Escuza follows at 48.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Novig, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Traders give Luca Borando about a 51.7% chance. Ian Escuza follows at 48.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Novig, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Luca Borando vs. Ian Escuza: UFC fight scheduled for 2026-09-29. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms

Moneyline

OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
NovigNovig
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
LB
Luca Borando
52%
Kalshi53¢
Novig53¢
Polymarket51¢
Novig1.90x53¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
52.5%52¢53¢47¢48¢
NovigNovig
52.5%52¢53¢48¢48¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%50¢51¢49¢50¢
IE
Ian Escuza
49%
Kalshi48¢
Novig48¢
Polymarket50¢
Kalshi2.08x48¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
47.5%47¢48¢52¢53¢
NovigNovig
48.0%48¢48¢52¢53¢
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%49¢50¢50¢51¢
KalshiKalshiNovigNovigPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Method of Victory

OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
IE
Ian Escuza by KO/TKO/DQ
single venue49%
Kalshi49¢
—
Kalshi2.04x49¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
49.0%47¢49¢51¢53¢
LB
Luca Borando by Submission
single venue49%
Kalshi49¢
—
Kalshi2.04x49¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
49.0%0¢49¢51¢100¢
IE
Ian Escuza by Decision
single venue49%
Kalshi49¢
—
Kalshi2.04x49¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
49.0%0¢49¢51¢100¢
IE
Ian Escuza by Submission
single venue49%
Kalshi49¢
—
Kalshi2.04x49¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
49.0%0¢49¢51¢100¢
LB
Luca Borando by Decision
single venue49%
Kalshi49¢
—
Kalshi2.04x49¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
49.0%0¢49¢51¢100¢
LB
Luca Borando by KO/TKO/DQ
single venue49%
Kalshi49¢
—
Kalshi2.04x49¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
49.0%0¢49¢51¢100¢
DC
Draw/No Contest
single venue4%
Kalshi4¢
—
Kalshi25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.0%0¢4¢96¢100¢
FW
Fight won by KO/TKO: No
single venue93%
—
Polymarket93¢
Polymarket1.08x93¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
93.0%37¢93¢7¢63¢
FW
Fight won by decision: No
single venue97%
—
Polymarket97¢
Polymarket1.03x97¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
97.0%8¢97¢3¢92¢
FW
Fight won by submission: No
single venue97%
—
Polymarket97¢
Polymarket1.03x97¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
97.0%9¢97¢3¢91¢
BT
Borando to win by KO/TKO: Yes
single venue96%
—
Polymarket96¢
Polymarket1.04x96¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
96.0%4¢96¢4¢96¢
ET
Escuza to win by KO/TKO: No
single venue97%
—
Polymarket97¢
Polymarket1.03x97¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
97.0%47¢97¢3¢53¢
BT
Borando to win by KO/TKO: No
single venue96%
—
Polymarket96¢
Polymarket1.04x96¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
96.0%4¢96¢4¢96¢
ET
Escuza to win by KO/TKO: Yes
single venue53%
—
Polymarket53¢
Polymarket1.89x53¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
53.0%3¢53¢47¢97¢
FW
Fight won by decision: Yes
single venue92%
—
Polymarket92¢
Polymarket1.09x92¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
92.0%3¢92¢8¢97¢
FW
Fight won by submission: Yes
single venue91%
—
Polymarket91¢
Polymarket1.10x91¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
91.0%3¢91¢9¢97¢
FW
Fight won by KO/TKO: Yes
single venue63%
—
Polymarket63¢
Polymarket1.59x63¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
63.0%7¢63¢37¢93¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Round of Victory

OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Best price
LB
Luca Borando to win in Round 1
single venue39%
Kalshi39¢
Kalshi2.56x39¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
39.0%0¢39¢61¢100¢
IE
Ian Escuza to win in Round 1
single venue29%
Kalshi29¢
Kalshi3.45x29¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
29.0%0¢29¢71¢100¢
D/
Decision / Draw / No Contest
single venue25%
Kalshi25¢
Kalshi4.00x25¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
25.0%7¢25¢75¢93¢
LB
Luca Borando to win in Round 3
single venue16%
Kalshi16¢
Kalshi6.25x16¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
16.0%0¢16¢84¢100¢
IE
Ian Escuza to win in Round 3
single venue16%
Kalshi16¢
Kalshi6.25x16¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
16.0%0¢16¢84¢100¢
IE
Ian Escuza to win in Round 2
single venue16%
Kalshi16¢
Kalshi6.25x16¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
16.0%0¢16¢84¢100¢
LB
Luca Borando to win in Round 2
single venue16%
Kalshi16¢
Kalshi6.25x16¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
16.0%0¢16¢84¢100¢
KalshiKalshi

Total Rounds

Best price
Over 0.5 Rounds
Polymarket97¢
Polymarket1.03x97¢
Under 0.5 Rounds
Polymarket60¢
Polymarket1.67x60¢

Goes the Distance

Fight to Go the Distance?
YESPolymarket72¢
NOPolymarket83¢

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Luca Borando

51.7% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Luca Borando vs. Ian Escuza

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Ian Escuza wins the Escuza vs Borando professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Escuza vs Borando professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 29, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
NovigNovig
Primary Rule

Ian Escuza in Luca Borando @ Ian Escuza (UFC); settled by Novig.

PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Luca Borando" if Luca Borando is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ian Escuza at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 8, scheduled for September 29, 2026. It will resolve to "Ian Escuza" if Ian Escuza is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 13, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Luca Borando vs. Ian Escuza prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Luca Borando vs. Ian Escuza odds?

The latest available prices are Luca Borando: 52.5¢ on Kalshi, 50.0¢ on Polymarket, 52.5¢ on Novig; Ian Escuza: 47.5¢ on Kalshi, 50.0¢ on Polymarket, 48.0¢ on Novig. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Why do Luca Borando vs. Ian Escuza odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 2.5 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Luca Borando vs. Ian Escuza prediction market payouts work?

For example, Luca Borando at 51.7¢ implies about a 51.7% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Resolved Sep 27

Final odds
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily buying Ian Escuza

Smart Money Consensus$285
$285Ian Escuza
Smart Traders Split1
1Ian Escuza
KalshiBuy Yes at 48¢

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Ian Escuza$285 · 1 whale

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow