Live prediction market odds for Luis Gurule vs. Bilal Hasan. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Novig and Polymarket and ProphetX.
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Traders give Bilal Hasan about a 88.3% chance. Luis Gurule follows at 11.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig, Polymarket, and ProphetX. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.3 percentage points.
KalshiPolymarket USNovigPolymarketProphetXKalshiNovigPolymarketKalshiNovigPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
KalshiKalshiBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX and Underdog.
KalshiIf Luis Gurule wins the Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If the fight ends in a draw/no contest, both markets will resolve to $0.50. Note that any revisions after Expiration will not be considered. Therefore, if a fighter is disqualified, removed, or the official result of the fight is reversed or changed in any way after the Contract expires, that will not impact resolution. If the fight is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the fight is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, both markets will resolve to a fair price. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.
NovigLuis Gurule in Luis Gurule @ Bilal Hasan (UFC); settled by Novig.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Luis Gurule" if Luis Gurule is officially declared the winner of the fight against Bilal Hasan at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Bilal Hasan" if Bilal Hasan is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to the winner of the Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule UFC fight scheduled for November 14 at 5:00PM ET. If the fight ends in a draw or is declared a no contest, the market will settle to $0.50. If the fight is cancelled before the opening bell, the market will settle to the last fair market price. If the fight is not held within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from UFC.
ProphetXSports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
UnderdogHasan vs Gurule Moneyline (vs Bilal Hasan): Luis Gurule to win in Hasan vs Gurule; settled by Underdog.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Bilal Hasan: 88.5¢ on Kalshi, 88.5¢ on Polymarket, 88.4¢ on ProphetX, 87.5¢ on Polymarket US, 88.8¢ on Novig; Luis Gurule: 12.5¢ on Kalshi, 11.5¢ on Polymarket, 11.6¢ on ProphetX, 12.5¢ on Polymarket US, 11.3¢ on Novig. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 1.3 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Bilal Hasan at 88.3¢ implies about a 88.3% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.
Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.
Trader up $1.1M lifetime bought $20.5K of Over at 41¢
1d agoO/U 1.5 RoundsTrade on Polymarket US 
