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Live prediction market odds for Marvin Vettori vs. Ismail Naurdiev. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Novig and Polymarket and ProphetX.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
Sign-up bonus

Get a $35 trading bonus

Sign-up bonus on Kalshi.

Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Novig / Polymarket / ProphetX

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Marvin Vettori vs. Ismail Naurdiev

2026-10-03

Best price · tap to trade

Ismail Naurdiev55¢1.82xPolymarket USMarvin Vettori45¢2.22xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Ismail Naurdiev about a 56.5% chance. Marvin Vettori follows at 45.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig, Polymarket, and ProphetX. The largest cross-platform price difference is 5.2 percentage points.

Traders give Ismail Naurdiev about a 56.5% chance. Marvin Vettori follows at 45.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig, Polymarket, and ProphetX. The largest cross-platform price difference is 5.2 percentage points.

Marvin Vettori vs. Ismail Naurdiev: UFC fight scheduled for 2026-10-03. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

5 platforms

Moneyline

OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Novig
Polymarket
ProphetX
Best price
IN
Ismail Naurdiev
57%
Kalshi57¢
Polymarket US55¢
Novig57¢
Polymarket58¢
ProphetX59¢
Polymarket US1.82x55¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
56.5%56¢57¢43¢44¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
54.0%54¢55¢45¢46¢
NovigNovig
57.0%54¢57¢43¢47¢
PolymarketPolymarket
56.0%56¢58¢42¢44¢
ProphetXProphetX
59.2%52¢59¢41¢48¢
MV
Marvin Vettori
46%
Kalshi45¢
Polymarket US46¢
Novig47¢
Polymarket44¢
ProphetX48¢
Kalshi2.22x45¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
44.5%44¢45¢55¢56¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
46.0%45¢46¢54¢55¢
NovigNovig
46.5%43¢47¢54¢57¢
PolymarketPolymarket
44.0%42¢44¢56¢58¢
ProphetXProphetX
47.7%41¢48¢52¢59¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USNovigNovigPolymarketPolymarketProphetXProphetX

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Method of Victory

Fight won by submission?
YESPolymarket97¢
NOPolymarket96¢
Vettori to win by KO/TKO?
YESPolymarket97¢
NOPolymarket97¢
Naurdiev to win by KO/TKO?
YESPolymarket97¢
NOPolymarket97¢
Fight won by decision?
YESPolymarket97¢
NOPolymarket97¢
Fight won by KO/TKO?
YESPolymarket97¢
NOPolymarket97¢

Total Rounds

Best price
Over 2.5 Rounds
Polymarket66¢
Polymarket1.52x66¢
Under 2.5 Rounds
Polymarket37¢
Polymarket2.70x37¢

Goes the Distance

Fight to Go the Distance?
YESPolymarket95¢
NOPolymarket94¢

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
ProphetXProphetX
ProphetX Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread5.2%
Platforms5
Candidates2
Leader

Ismail Naurdiev

56.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Marvin Vettori vs. Ismail Naurdiev

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Ismail Naurdiev wins the Vettori vs Naurdiev professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Vettori vs Naurdiev professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Oct 3, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
NovigNovig
Primary Rule

Ismail Naurdiev in Ismail Naurdiev @ Marvin Vettori (UFC); settled by Novig.

PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Marvin Vettori" if Marvin Vettori is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ismail Naurdiev at UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang, scheduled for October 3, 2026. It will resolve to "Ismail Naurdiev" if Ismail Naurdiev is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 17, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Marvin Vettori vs Ismail Naurdiev UFC fight scheduled for October 3 at 4:00PM ET. If the fight ends in a draw or is declared a no contest, the market will settle to $0.50. If the fight is cancelled before the opening bell, the market will settle to the last fair market price. If the fight is not held within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from UFC.

ProphetXProphetX
Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles
ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Marvin Vettori vs. Ismail Naurdiev prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Marvin Vettori vs. Ismail Naurdiev odds?

The latest available prices are Ismail Naurdiev: 56.5¢ on Kalshi, 56.0¢ on Polymarket, 59.2¢ on ProphetX, 54.0¢ on Polymarket US, 57.0¢ on Novig; Marvin Vettori: 44.5¢ on Kalshi, 44.0¢ on Polymarket, 47.7¢ on ProphetX, 46.0¢ on Polymarket US, 46.5¢ on Novig. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Why do Marvin Vettori vs. Ismail Naurdiev odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 5.2 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Marvin Vettori vs. Ismail Naurdiev prediction market payouts work?

For example, Ismail Naurdiev at 56.5¢ implies about a 56.5% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily buying Ismail Naurdiev

Smart Money Consensus$514
$514Ismail Naurdiev
Smart Traders Split1
1Ismail Naurdiev
Polymarket USBuy Yes at 55¢

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Ismail Naurdiev$514 · 1 whale

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Smart Money Feed
Full Feed

Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

Trader up $3.9M lifetime bet $514 on Ismail Naurdiev at 55¢

17h ago
PolymarketPolymarket USUFC 332: Marvin Vettori vs. Ismail Naurdiev (Middleweight, Early Prelims)Trade on Polymarket US →