Live prediction market odds for Sedriques Dumas vs. Luis Hernandez. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Resolved 2026-09-27
This market resolved on 2026-09-27. Luis Hernandez was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Sedriques Dumas vs.
Sedriques Dumas vs. Luis Hernandez: UFC fight held on 2026-09-27. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Luis HernandezWINNER | 100% | 100% |
Fight won by submission: Yes | — | 99% |
Under 2.5 Rounds | — | 99% |
Fight to Go the Distance: No | — | 82% |
Fight won by decision: No | — | 81% |
Dumas to win by KO/TKO: No | — | 75% |
Dumas to win by KO/TKO: Yes | — | 75% |
Over 0.5 Rounds | — | 75% |
Hernandez to win by KO/TKO: No | — | 70% |
Under 1.5 Rounds | — | 66% |
Fight won by KO/TKO: Yes | — | 56% |
Fight won by KO/TKO: No | — | 44% |
Over 1.5 Rounds | — | 34% |
Sedriques Dumas | 31% | 0% |
Hernandez to win by KO/TKO: Yes | — | 30% |
Fight won by decision: Yes | — | 19% |
Fight to Go the Distance: Yes | — | 18% |
Under 0.5 Rounds | — | 1% |
Fight won by submission: No | — | 1% |
Decision / Draw / No Contest | — | — |
Draw/No Contest | — | — |
Luis Hernandez by Decision | — | — |
Luis Hernandez by KO/TKO/DQ | — | — |
Luis Hernandez by Submission | — | — |
Luis Hernandez to win in Round 1 | — | — |
Luis Hernandez to win in Round 2 | — | — |
Luis Hernandez to win in Round 3 | — | — |
Over 2.5 Rounds | — | — |
Sedriques Dumas by Decision | — | — |
Sedriques Dumas by KO/TKO/DQ | — | — |
Sedriques Dumas by Submission | — | — |
Sedriques Dumas to win in Round 1 | — | — |
Sedriques Dumas to win in Round 2 | — | — |
Sedriques Dumas to win in Round 3 | — | — |
Luis Hernandez
99.7% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Luis Hernandez wins the Hernandez vs Dumas professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Hernandez vs Dumas professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 26, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Sedriques Dumas" if Sedriques Dumas is officially declared the winner of the fight against Luis Hernandez at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2026. It will resolve to "Luis Hernandez" if Luis Hernandez is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 10, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are Luis Hernandez: 99.5¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket; Sedriques Dumas: 30.5¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 30.4 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Luis Hernandez at 99.7¢ implies about a 99.7% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.
