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Live prediction market odds for Zaurbek Sabanov vs. Adama Diop. Compare prices across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Novig / Polymarket

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Zaurbek Sabanov vs. Adama Diop

2026-09-29

Best price · tap to trade

Zaurbek Sabanov80¢1.25xKalshiAdama Diop22¢4.55xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Zaurbek Sabanov about a 79.7% chance. Adama Diop follows at 22.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Novig, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.0 percentage points.

Traders give Zaurbek Sabanov about a 79.7% chance. Adama Diop follows at 22.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Novig, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.0 percentage points.

Zaurbek Sabanov vs. Adama Diop: UFC fight scheduled for 2026-09-29. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms

Moneyline

OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
NovigNovig
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
ZS
Zaurbek Sabanov
80%
Kalshi80¢
Novig82¢
Polymarket78¢
Kalshi1.25x80¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
79.0%79¢80¢20¢21¢
NovigNovig
82.0%77¢82¢18¢24¢
PolymarketPolymarket
78.0%77¢78¢22¢23¢
AD
Adama Diop
22%
Kalshi22¢
Novig23¢
Polymarket23¢
Kalshi4.55x22¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
22.0%21¢22¢78¢79¢
NovigNovig
22.5%17¢23¢78¢83¢
PolymarketPolymarket
22.0%22¢23¢77¢78¢
KalshiKalshiNovigNovigPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Method of Victory

OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
ZS
Zaurbek Sabanov by KO/TKO/DQ
single venue59%
Kalshi59¢
—
Kalshi1.69x59¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
59.0%56¢59¢41¢44¢
AD
Adama Diop by Decision
single venue17%
Kalshi17¢
—
Kalshi5.88x17¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
17.0%14¢17¢83¢86¢
ZS
Zaurbek Sabanov by Decision
single venue49%
Kalshi49¢
—
Kalshi2.04x49¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
49.0%0¢49¢51¢100¢
DC
Draw/No Contest
single venue4%
Kalshi4¢
—
Kalshi25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.0%0¢4¢96¢100¢
ZS
Zaurbek Sabanov by Submission
single venue49%
Kalshi49¢
—
Kalshi2.04x49¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
49.0%0¢49¢51¢100¢
AD
Adama Diop by KO/TKO/DQ
single venue43%
Kalshi43¢
—
Kalshi2.33x43¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
43.0%3¢43¢57¢97¢
AD
Adama Diop by Submission
single venue49%
Kalshi49¢
—
Kalshi2.04x49¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
49.0%0¢49¢51¢100¢
DT
Diop to win by KO/TKO: No
single venue97%
—
Polymarket97¢
Polymarket1.03x97¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
97.0%53¢97¢3¢47¢
ST
Sabanov to win by KO/TKO: Yes
single venue95%
—
Polymarket95¢
Polymarket1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
95.0%52¢95¢5¢48¢
FW
Fight won by KO/TKO: Yes
single venue90%
—
Polymarket90¢
Polymarket1.11x90¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
90.0%69¢90¢10¢31¢
FW
Fight won by submission: No
single venue97%
—
Polymarket97¢
Polymarket1.03x97¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
97.0%20¢97¢3¢80¢
FW
Fight won by decision: No
single venue97%
—
Polymarket97¢
Polymarket1.03x97¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
97.0%7¢97¢3¢93¢
FW
Fight won by decision: Yes
single venue93%
—
Polymarket93¢
Polymarket1.08x93¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
93.0%3¢93¢7¢97¢
FW
Fight won by submission: Yes
single venue80%
—
Polymarket80¢
Polymarket1.25x80¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
80.0%3¢80¢20¢97¢
DT
Diop to win by KO/TKO: Yes
single venue47%
—
Polymarket47¢
Polymarket2.13x47¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
47.0%3¢47¢53¢97¢
ST
Sabanov to win by KO/TKO: No
single venue48%
—
Polymarket48¢
Polymarket2.08x48¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
48.0%5¢48¢52¢95¢
FW
Fight won by KO/TKO: No
single venue31%
—
Polymarket31¢
Polymarket3.23x31¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
31.0%10¢31¢69¢90¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Round of Victory

OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Best price
ZS
Zaurbek Sabanov to win in Round 1
single venue74%
Kalshi74¢
Kalshi1.35x74¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
74.0%3¢74¢26¢97¢
AD
Adama Diop to win in Round 1
single venue27%
Kalshi27¢
Kalshi3.70x27¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
27.0%7¢27¢73¢93¢
D/
Decision / Draw / No Contest
single venue16%
Kalshi16¢
Kalshi6.25x16¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
16.0%13¢16¢84¢87¢
ZS
Zaurbek Sabanov to win in Round 2
single venue16%
Kalshi16¢
Kalshi6.25x16¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
16.0%0¢16¢84¢100¢
AD
Adama Diop to win in Round 3
single venue16%
Kalshi16¢
Kalshi6.25x16¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
16.0%0¢16¢84¢100¢
AD
Adama Diop to win in Round 2
single venue16%
Kalshi16¢
Kalshi6.25x16¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
16.0%0¢16¢84¢100¢
ZS
Zaurbek Sabanov to win in Round 3
single venue16%
Kalshi16¢
Kalshi6.25x16¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
16.0%0¢16¢84¢100¢
KalshiKalshi

Total Rounds

Best price
Over 0.5 Rounds
Polymarket97¢
Polymarket1.03x97¢
Under 0.5 Rounds
Polymarket97¢
Polymarket1.03x97¢

Goes the Distance

Fight to Go the Distance?
YESPolymarket26¢
NOPolymarket87¢

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread4.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Zaurbek Sabanov

79.7% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Zaurbek Sabanov vs. Adama Diop

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Zaurbek Sabanov wins the Diop vs Sabanov professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Diop vs Sabanov professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 29, 2026. If this fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within two weeks). If the fight is declared a tie or no contest, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both fighters. If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
NovigNovig
Primary Rule

Zaurbek Sabanov in Zaurbek Sabanov @ Adama Diop (UFC); settled by Novig.

PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Zaurbek Sabanov" if Zaurbek Sabanov is officially declared the winner of the fight against Adama Diop at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 8, scheduled for September 29, 2026. It will resolve to "Adama Diop" if Adama Diop is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 13, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Zaurbek Sabanov vs. Adama Diop prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Zaurbek Sabanov vs. Adama Diop odds?

The latest available prices are Zaurbek Sabanov: 79.0¢ on Kalshi, 78.0¢ on Polymarket, 82.0¢ on Novig; Adama Diop: 22.0¢ on Kalshi, 22.0¢ on Polymarket, 22.5¢ on Novig. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Why do Zaurbek Sabanov vs. Adama Diop odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 4.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Zaurbek Sabanov vs. Adama Diop prediction market payouts work?

For example, Zaurbek Sabanov at 79.7¢ implies about a 79.7% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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