Unemployment in August
Live prediction market odds for Unemployment in August. Compare prices across .
This market has closed on Sep 5, 2026. The chart below shows historical odds.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking unemployment rates for August 2026.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking unemployment rates for August 2026. Fluctuations in these rates can impact economic policies, consumer confidence, and market stability, making this a key indicator for investors and policymakers alike.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
4.1%WINNER | Yes |
Above 3.7%WINNER | Yes |
Above 3.8%WINNER | Yes |
Above 3.9%WINNER | Yes |
Above 4.0%WINNER | Yes |
≤3.8% | No |
≥4.6% | No |
3.9% | No |
4.0% | No |
4.2% | No |
4.3% | No |
4.4% | No |
4.5% | No |
Above 4.1% | No |
Above 4.2% | No |
Above 4.3% | No |
Above 4.4% | No |
Above 4.5% | No |
Above 4.6% | No |
Above 4.7% | No |
Above 4.8% | No |
Above 4.9% | No |
Above 5.0% | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and Predict.fun.
KalshiIf the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
Polymarket USThis market will settle to Yes if the U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026 is above 3.7%. Outcome sourced from BLS. Settlement is based on the Employment Situation Report release published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), currently scheduled for release on September 4, 2026. Any subsequent revisions to this figure will not be considered for settlement purposes. If no qualifying U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) figure for the specified month is released within three months of the Employment Situation Report scheduled release date, this market will resolve based on data from the most recent previous month with available data.
Predict.funThis market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Unemployment rates can be affected by economic growth, labor market conditions, and government policies. Seasonal employment trends and industry shifts also play a significant role.
August often reflects seasonal employment changes, particularly in sectors like tourism and education. The data can indicate trends heading into the fall, impacting economic forecasts.
Prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions on future unemployment rates, allowing participants to bet on outcomes based on economic indicators. These markets can provide insights into investor sentiment and economic outlook.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
