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Live prediction market odds for Unemployment in August. Compare prices across Kalshi.

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Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

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Unemployment in August

2026-09-04

Best price · tap to trade

Above 4.6%4¢25.00xKalshiAbove 4.7%4¢25.00xKalshiAbove 4.8%4¢25.00xKalshi
Compare all 23 outcomes across 1 venue

About This Market

Traders give Above 4.6% about a 4.0% chance. Above 4.7% follows at 4.0%, Above 4.8% follows at 4.0%, and Above 4.9% follows at 4.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi.

Traders give Above 4.6% about a 4.0% chance. Above 4.7% follows at 4.0%, Above 4.8% follows at 4.0%, and Above 4.9% follows at 4.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking unemployment rates for August 2026. Fluctuations in these rates can impact economic policies, consumer confidence, and market stability, making this a key indicator for investors and policymakers alike.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

1 platform
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Best price
A4
Above 4.6%
single venue3%
Kalshi4¢
Kalshi25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
3.0%2¢4¢96¢98¢
A4
Above 4.7%
single venue3%
Kalshi4¢
Kalshi25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
3.0%2¢4¢96¢98¢
A4
Above 4.8%
single venue3%
Kalshi4¢
Kalshi25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
3.0%2¢4¢96¢98¢
A4
Above 4.9%
single venue3%
Kalshi4¢
Kalshi25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
3.0%2¢4¢96¢98¢
A5
Above 5.0%
single venue1%
Kalshi1¢
Kalshi100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%1¢1¢99¢99¢
KalshiKalshi

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread0.0%
Platforms1
Candidates23
Leader

Above 4.6%

4.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Unemployment in August

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026 is above 3.7%. Outcome sourced from BLS. Settlement is based on the Employment Situation Report release published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), currently scheduled for release on September 4, 2026. Any subsequent revisions to this figure will not be considered for settlement purposes. If no qualifying U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) figure for the specified month is released within three months of the Employment Situation Report scheduled release date, this market will resolve based on data from the most recent previous month with available data.

Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence unemployment rates?

Unemployment rates can be affected by economic growth, labor market conditions, and government policies. Seasonal employment trends and industry shifts also play a significant role.

Why is August a critical month for unemployment data?

August often reflects seasonal employment changes, particularly in sectors like tourism and education. The data can indicate trends heading into the fall, impacting economic forecasts.

How do prediction markets reflect unemployment expectations?

Prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions on future unemployment rates, allowing participants to bet on outcomes based on economic indicators. These markets can provide insights into investor sentiment and economic outlook.

What does the Unemployment in August prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Unemployment in August odds?

The latest available prices are Above 4.6%: 4.0¢ on Kalshi; Above 4.7%: 4.0¢ on Kalshi; Above 4.8%: 4.0¢ on Kalshi; Above 4.9%: 4.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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