Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
Live prediction market odds for Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give Central African Republic about a 33.0% chance. South Sudan follows at 22.8%, Tanzania follows at 19.0%, and Ethiopia follows at 15.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.0 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in Somalia is officially reported after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Only confirmed cases qualify; suspected, probable, or presumptive cases do not. Animal cases do not qualify. The case must be confirmed in Somalia — a citizen of Somalia diagnosed elsewhere does not count. Imported cases diagnosed within Somalia do count. Resolution is based on the date of official confirmation, not symptom onset. Cases confirmed after Jan 1, 2027 do not qualify even if infection occurred earlier.
The event will resolve on January 1, 2027, based on confirmed Ebola cases reported in 2026.
Odds fluctuate based on real-time developments, including outbreaks and public health measures taken in different countries.
A country is confirmed to have reported an Ebola case when health authorities officially announce a diagnosis based on laboratory testing.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Central African Republic: 33.0¢ on Kalshi; South Sudan: 23.5¢ on Kalshi, 22.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
