About This Market
Traders give United States about a 57.0% chance. China follows at 36.0%, Russia follows at 2.0%, and European Space Agency follows at 1.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi.
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
Live prediction market odds for Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?. Compare prices across Kalshi.
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Compare all 5 outcomes across 1 venueTraders give United States about a 57.0% chance. China follows at 36.0%, Russia follows at 2.0%, and European Space Agency follows at 1.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi.
KalshiKalshiOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf United States is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States.
Various countries have announced plans for lunar missions, aiming to establish a human presence on the Moon. These missions are often part of broader space exploration strategies.
International competition drives countries to accelerate their space programs, fostering innovation and investment. Achieving lunar missions can enhance national prestige and technological leadership.
Successful Moon missions require advancements in rocket technology, life support systems, and sustainable habitats. These innovations are crucial for ensuring the safety and success of human explorers.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are United States: 57.0¢ on Kalshi; China: 36.0¢ on Kalshi; Russia: 2.0¢ on Kalshi; European Space Agency: 1.4¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.