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Live prediction market odds for Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket

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Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

2026-12-31

Best price · tap to trade

Ciryl Gane68¢1.47xKalshiTom Aspinall1¢100.00xKalshiAlexander Volkov2¢50.00xKalshi
Compare all 8 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Ciryl Gane about a 68.5% chance. Tom Aspinall follows at 1.0%, Alexander Volkov follows at 0.6%, and Curtis Blaydes follows at 0.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.0 percentage points.

Traders give Ciryl Gane about a 68.5% chance. Tom Aspinall follows at 1.0%, Alexander Volkov follows at 0.6%, and Curtis Blaydes follows at 0.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who will be the UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026. The outcome will depend on fighter performances, injuries, and potential matchups leading up to the championship date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
CG
Ciryl Gane
69%
Kalshi68¢
Polymarket72¢
Kalshi1.47x68¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
68.0%67¢68¢32¢33¢
PolymarketPolymarket
69.0%69¢72¢28¢31¢
TA
Tom Aspinall
1%
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket2¢
Kalshi100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.0%1¢2¢98¢99¢
AV
Alexander Volkov
1%
Kalshi2¢
—
Kalshi50.00x2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%1¢2¢98¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢—100¢100¢
CB
Curtis Blaydes
single venue1%
Kalshi1¢
—
Kalshi100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢1¢99¢100¢
JA
Jailton Almeida
single venue1%
Kalshi1¢
—
Kalshi100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢1¢99¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Ciryl Gane

Ciryl Gane is a French professional mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's heavyweight division. He is scheduled to fight Alex Pereira for the interim heavyweight championship on June 14, 2026, at UFC Freedom 250. Gane's upcoming bout is pivotal in determining the interim UFC Heavyweight champion for 2026.

About Tom Aspinall

Tom Aspinall is the current UFC Heavyweight Champion and signed with Eddie Hearn's Matchroom Talent Agency in March 2026. He became the undisputed champion in June 2025 after Jon Jones retired. Aspinall's recent partnership with Hearn may influence his career trajectory leading up to the end of 2026.

About Alexander Volkov

Alexander Volkov is a Russian professional mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's Heavyweight division. He is a former heavyweight champion in both M-1 Global and Bellator MMA. Volkov is scheduled to face Waldo Cortes-Acosta on May 9, 2026, at UFC 328.

About Curtis Blaydes

Curtis Blaydes is a professional mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's Heavyweight division. He is scheduled to fight Josh Hokit at UFC 327 on April 11, 2026. Blaydes is ranked #4 in the UFC heavyweight rankings as of March 17, 2026.

About Jailton Almeida

Jailton Almeida is a Brazilian mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's heavyweight division. He has achieved notable victories over fighters like Serghei Spivac and Alexander Romanov. Almeida's recent performances, including a loss to Rizvan Kuniev in February 2026, highlight his ongoing pursuit of the UFC Heavyweight Championship.

About Marcin Tybura

Marcin Tybura is a Polish professional mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's Heavyweight division. He previously held the M-1 Global Heavyweight Championship and the M-1 Grand Prix 2013 Heavyweight Championship. Tybura is relevant to this prediction market as a current contender in the UFC Heavyweight division.

About Sergei Pavlovich

Sergei Pavlovich is a Russian professional mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's Heavyweight division. He is scheduled to face Tallison Teixeira on May 30, 2026, at UFC Fight Night 277. His upcoming fight is relevant to the prediction market concerning the UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026.

About Waldo Cortes Acosta

Waldo Cortes-Acosta is a Dominican professional mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's Heavyweight division. He previously held the Legacy Fighting Alliance Heavyweight Championship. His recent victory over Derrick Lewis at UFC 324 positions him as a strong contender for the UFC Heavyweight title by the end of 2026.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
ESPN
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracleufc.com
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.0%
Platforms2
Candidates8
Leader

Ciryl Gane

68.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Tom Aspinall is the UFC Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
ESPN
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracleufc.com

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the UFC Heavyweight championship odds?

Fighter performance, injury status, and upcoming matchups significantly impact the odds. Additionally, changes in training camps or management can also affect a fighter's chances.

How often do odds change for this championship market?

Odds can fluctuate frequently based on fight announcements, results, and public sentiment. Major events, such as title fights or injuries, often lead to rapid adjustments.

What is the significance of the UFC Heavyweight championship?

Holding the Heavyweight championship is a prestigious achievement in mixed martial arts, representing the pinnacle of success in the sport. It often garners significant media attention and fan interest.

Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Ciryl Gane: 68.0¢ on Kalshi, 69.0¢ on Polymarket; Tom Aspinall: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 1.0¢ on Polymarket; Alexander Volkov: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket; Curtis Blaydes: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily fading Sergei Pavlovich

Smart Money Consensus$215
$215No
Smart Traders Split1
1No
PolymarketBuy No at 100¢

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Tom Aspinall
No$213 · 1 whale
Sergei Pavlovich
No$215 · 1 whale

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Aspinall Vacates UFC Heavyweight Title After Eye InjuryAspinall's 2026 title odds fell 55 points to 3% in 72 hours after he confirmed his eye injury blocks medical clearance. Ciryl Gane is next in line.Sep 15, 2026Aspinall's 2026 Title Odds Hit 55% With No Fight Date SetAspinall's year-end title probability jumped 10 percentage points in 72 hours. Gane holds the interim belt after stopping Pereira in June.Sep 13, 2026Aspinall UFC Title Odds Fall 8 Points With No Fight Date in SightAspinall's year-end title probability dropped from 64% to 56% in three days. No medical clearance, no bout announcement, and the 12-month mark hits in late October.Sep 9, 2026Aspinall Rematch With Gane Takes Shape, Title Odds Jump 8 PointsAspinall holds the belt after the Abu Dhabi no contest. Bettors moved him from 54% to 62% in three days as Gane becomes the only credible title challenger left.
Sep 7, 2026

Prediction Market Track Record

UFC Freedom 250: Pereira vs GaneWONPre-event: 51%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

UFC Freedom 250: Pereira vs Gane

Resolved

2026-06-15

WONCiryl Gane
Pre-event: 51%

Curtis Blaydes vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta

Resolved

2026-09-12

WONCurtis Blaydes
Pre-event: 36%

Prediction Market Track Record

Curtis Blaydes vs. Waldo Cortes AcostaWONPre-event: 36%