Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?
Live prediction market odds for Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give Justin Gaethje about a 92.4% chance. Arman Tsarukyan follows at 5.3%, Alexander Volkanovski follows at 1.5%, and Benoit Saint-Denis follows at 1.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.3 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Ilia Topuria is the UFC Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Fighter performance in matches, injuries, and training camps are key factors. Additionally, changes in fight schedules and matchups can significantly impact the odds.
Odds can change frequently based on recent fight results, news about fighters, and public sentiment. Major events like title fights or significant announcements can cause rapid shifts.
The UFC Lightweight championship is a prestigious title in mixed martial arts, representing the top fighter in the lightweight division. Holding this title can elevate a fighter's career and marketability.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Justin Gaethje: 91.5¢ on Kalshi, 93.3¢ on Polymarket; Arman Tsarukyan: 6.5¢ on Kalshi, 4.2¢ on Polymarket; Alexander Volkanovski: 1.5¢ on Kalshi; Benoit Saint-Denis: 1.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
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