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Live prediction market odds for Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

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Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?

2026-12-31

Best price · tap to trade

Justin Gaethje90¢1.11xKalshiArman Tsarukyan12¢8.33xKalshiIlia Topuria2¢50.00xKalshi
Compare all 8 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Justin Gaethje about a 88.7% chance. Arman Tsarukyan follows at 8.8%, Ilia Topuria follows at 1.1%, and Paddy Pimblett follows at 0.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.3 percentage points.

Traders give Justin Gaethje about a 88.7% chance. Arman Tsarukyan follows at 8.8%, Ilia Topuria follows at 1.1%, and Paddy Pimblett follows at 0.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.3 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the UFC Lightweight championship outcome for the end of 2026. The dynamics of fighter performances, injuries, and match outcomes will heavily influence the championship landscape leading up to this date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JG
Justin Gaethje
89%
Kalshi90¢
Polymarket89¢
Kalshi1.11x90¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
88.5%87¢90¢10¢13¢
PolymarketPolymarket
88.8%88¢89¢11¢12¢
AT
Arman Tsarukyan
9%
Kalshi12¢
Polymarket9¢
Kalshi8.33x12¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
10.5%9¢12¢88¢91¢
PolymarketPolymarket
7.2%7¢9¢91¢93¢
IT
Ilia Topuria
1%
Kalshi2¢
Polymarket1¢
Kalshi50.00x2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.0%1¢2¢98¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.3%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PP
Paddy Pimblett
2%
Kalshi2¢
—
Kalshi50.00x2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.5%1¢2¢98¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢—100¢100¢
MH
Max Holloway
single venue1%
Kalshi1¢
—
Kalshi100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢1¢99¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Justin Gaethje

Justin Gaethje is the current interim UFC Lightweight Champion, having secured the title on January 24, 2026, by defeating Paddy Pimblett at UFC 324. Previously, he held the BMF title after a knockout victory over Dustin Poirier in July 2023. Gaethje is scheduled to face Ilia Topuria in a title unification bout at UFC Freedom 250 on June 14, 2026.

About Arman Tsarukyan

Arman Tsarukyan is a professional mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's lightweight division. He has notable victories over Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush. His recent performances position him as a strong contender for the UFC Lightweight Championship by the end of 2026.

About Ilia Topuria

Ilia Topuria is the current UFC Lightweight Champion, holding the title since June 2025. He previously secured the UFC Featherweight Championship in February 2024, becoming the first Georgian and Spanish fighter to win a UFC title. His recent return to the UFC after a brief hiatus makes him a central figure in the prediction market for the 2026 Lightweight champion.

About Max Holloway

Max Holloway is a professional mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's lightweight division. He is a former UFC Featherweight Champion and the inaugural holder of the symbolic BMF title. Holloway is relevant to this prediction market as a leading contender in the lightweight division, having recently defended his BMF title against Dustin Poirier at UFC 318 on July 19, 2025.

About Charles Oliveira

Charles Oliveira is a Brazilian professional mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's lightweight division. He became the UFC Lightweight Champion in 2021, defending his title successfully before losing it to Islam Makhachev in 2022. Oliveira is relevant to this prediction market as a leading contender aiming to reclaim the lightweight championship by the end of 2026.

Smart Trade Router

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¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
ESPN
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracleufc.com
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.3%
Platforms2
Candidates8
Leader

Justin Gaethje

88.7% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Ilia Topuria is the UFC Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
ESPN
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracleufc.com

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the UFC Lightweight championship?

Fighter performance in matches, injuries, and training camps are key factors. Additionally, changes in fight schedules and matchups can significantly impact the odds.

How often do the odds change for this championship market?

Odds can change frequently based on recent fight results, news about fighters, and public sentiment. Major events like title fights or significant announcements can cause rapid shifts.

What is the significance of the UFC Lightweight championship?

The UFC Lightweight championship is a prestigious title in mixed martial arts, representing the top fighter in the lightweight division. Holding this title can elevate a fighter's career and marketability.

Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Justin Gaethje: 88.5¢ on Kalshi, 88.8¢ on Polymarket; Arman Tsarukyan: 10.5¢ on Kalshi, 7.2¢ on Polymarket; Ilia Topuria: 2.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.3¢ on Polymarket; Paddy Pimblett: 1.5¢ on Kalshi, 0.3¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Trader up $2.2M lifetime bet $809 on Yes at 91¢

5d ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Trade on Kalshi →

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Tsarukyan KOs Ruffy, But Title Odds Fall to 6% on Gaethje-TopuriaPrediction markets cut Tsarukyan from 16% to 6% to hold the lightweight belt by year-end, with Kalshi at 9% and Polymarket at 4%.Sep 26, 2026Tsarukyan Sits at 13% for UFC Lightweight Title After UFC 331 KOTsarukyan jumped from 3% to 13% after knocking out Ruffy at UFC 331, but Gaethje may sidestep him for a Topuria rematch, capping the odds climb.Sep 22, 2026Tsarukyan's Title Odds Triple After First-Round KO at UFC 331His implied probability rose from 5% to 14% in three days. Topuria's 2027 return leaves Tsarukyan as Gaethje's most credible 2026 challenger.Sep 20, 2026Gaethje Sits Out Rest of 2026, Title Odds Rise to 90%With no fight scheduled before December 31, Kalshi and Polymarket both price Gaethje above 88%. The belt now hinges on UFC politics, not performance.Aug 29, 2026

Prediction Market Track Record

2026 ESPYS: Best FighterLOSTPre-event: 0%

Prediction Market Track Record

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio RuffyWONPre-event: 73%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

2026 ESPYS: Best Fighter

Resolved

2026-07-15

LOSTJustin Gaethje
Pre-event: 0%

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy

Resolved

2026-09-20

WONArman Tsarukyan
Pre-event: 73%

UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira

Resolved

2026-03-08

LOSTMax Holloway
Pre-event: 65%

Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor

Resolved

2026-07-12

WONMax Holloway
Pre-event: 70%

Prediction Market Track Record

UFC 326: Holloway vs OliveiraLOSTPre-event: 65%Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregorWONPre-event: 70%