UFC Welterweight Champion 2026 Odds - Islam Makhachev 96%

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Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

Live Markets

2 platforms

OutcomeConsensus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Best price

IM

Islam Makhachev

96%

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	96.5%	96¢	97¢	3¢	4¢
Polymarket	96.2%	96¢	96¢	4¢	4¢

CP

Carlos Prates

single venue2%

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Polymarket	2.0%	0.4¢	4¢	96¢	99.6¢

IT

Ilia Topuria

single venue

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	—	0¢	2¢	98¢	100¢

MM

Michael Morales

1%

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	—	0¢	2¢	98¢	100¢
Polymarket	1.3%	0.7¢	2¢	98¢	99.3¢

BM

Belal Muhammad

2%

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	1.5%	1¢	2¢	98¢	99¢
Polymarket	—	0¢	0.1¢	99.9¢	100¢

Kalshi

Polymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Islam Makhachev

Islam Makhachev is the current UFC Welterweight Champion, having secured the title on November 15, 2025, at UFC 322 by defeating Jack Della Maddalena. Prior to this, he was the UFC Lightweight Champion, defending his title four times before vacating it in June 2025. His recent move to the welterweight division and subsequent championship victory make him a strong contender for the UFC Welterweight title at the end of 2026.

About Carlos Prates

Carlos Prates is a Brazilian professional mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's welterweight division. He has achieved notable victories, including a knockout win over Leon Edwards at UFC 322 on November 15, 2025. His upcoming fight against Jack Della Maddalena on May 2, 2026, positions him as a strong contender for the welterweight title.

About Ilia Topuria

Ilia Topuria is the current UFC Lightweight Champion. He became the first fighter to hold both the featherweight and lightweight titles after defeating Charles Oliveira at UFC 317 in June 2025. His return to the octagon is anticipated between April and June 2026, with a potential title defense against interim champion Justin Gaethje.

About Michael Morales

Michael Morales is an undefeated Ecuadorian professional mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's welterweight division. He has secured 14 wins by knockout and 10 first-round finishes, with his most recent victory being a first-round TKO against Sean Brady on November 15, 2025. His impressive record and rapid rise in the welterweight rankings make him a strong contender for the UFC Welterweight Championship by the end of 2026.

About Ian Machado Garry

Ian Machado Garry is a professional mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's welterweight division. He previously held the Cage Warriors Welterweight Championship. Garry is a leading contender for the UFC Welterweight Championship, with a notable victory over former champion Belal Muhammad in November 2025.

About Kamaru Usman

Kamaru Usman is a Nigerian-American professional mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's Welterweight division. He was the UFC Welterweight Champion from 2019 to 2022, defending his title five times before losing it to Leon Edwards in August 2022. Usman is aiming to reclaim the welterweight title in 2026, with plans to retire after securing both the welterweight and middleweight championships.

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Shavkat Rakhmonov is the UFC Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oracleufc.com

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the UFC Welterweight championship odds?

Fighter performance in matches, injuries, and changes in training camps can significantly affect the odds. Additionally, the outcomes of upcoming title fights and rankings play a crucial role.

How often do the odds change for UFC championship markets?

Odds can fluctuate frequently, especially after major fight announcements, results, or injuries. Real-time updates reflect the latest developments in the UFC landscape.

What is the significance of the UFC Welterweight championship?

Holding the UFC Welterweight championship represents the pinnacle of achievement in the division. It impacts fighters' careers, fan engagement, and promotional opportunities within the UFC.

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Islam Makhachev: 96.5¢ on Kalshi, 96.2¢ on Polymarket; Carlos Prates: 2.0¢ on Polymarket; Ilia Topuria: 2.0¢ on Kalshi; Michael Morales: 2.0¢ on Kalshi, 1.3¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.