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Live prediction market odds for Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket

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Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

2026-12-31

Best price · tap to trade

Islam Makhachev91¢1.10xKalshiIan Machado Garry1¢100.00xKalshiMichael Morales1¢100.00xKalshi
Compare all 9 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Islam Makhachev about a 90.4% chance. Ian Machado Garry follows at 0.9%, Michael Morales follows at 0.8%, and Belal Muhammad follows at 0.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.9 percentage points.

Traders give Islam Makhachev about a 90.4% chance. Ian Machado Garry follows at 0.9%, Michael Morales follows at 0.8%, and Belal Muhammad follows at 0.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.9 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who will hold the UFC Welterweight championship at the end of 2026. The outcome will be influenced by fighter performances, match outcomes, and potential title fights leading up to the date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
IM
Islam Makhachev
90%
Kalshi91¢
Polymarket91¢
Kalshi1.10x91¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
90.5%90¢91¢9¢10¢
PolymarketPolymarket
90.3%90¢91¢9¢10¢
IM
Ian Machado Garry
1%
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket1¢
Kalshi100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢1¢99¢100¢
MM
Michael Morales
1%
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket1¢
Kalshi100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢1¢99¢100¢
BM
Belal Muhammad
single venue1%
Kalshi1¢
—
Kalshi100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢1¢99¢100¢
JD
Jack Della Maddalena
single venue1%
Kalshi1¢
—
Kalshi100.00x1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢1¢99¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Islam Makhachev

Islam Makhachev is the current UFC Welterweight Champion, having secured the title on November 15, 2025, at UFC 322 by defeating Jack Della Maddalena. Prior to this, he was the UFC Lightweight Champion, defending his title four times before vacating it in June 2025. His recent move to the welterweight division and subsequent championship victory make him a strong contender for the UFC Welterweight title at the end of 2026.

About Ian Machado Garry

Ian Machado Garry is a professional mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's welterweight division. He previously held the Cage Warriors Welterweight Championship. Garry is a leading contender for the UFC Welterweight Championship, with a notable victory over former champion Belal Muhammad in November 2025.

About Michael Morales

Michael Morales is an undefeated Ecuadorian professional mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's welterweight division. He has secured 14 wins by knockout and 10 first-round finishes, with his most recent victory being a first-round TKO against Sean Brady on November 15, 2025. His impressive record and rapid rise in the welterweight rankings make him a strong contender for the UFC Welterweight Championship by the end of 2026.

About Kamaru Usman

Kamaru Usman is a Nigerian-American professional mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's Welterweight division. He was the UFC Welterweight Champion from 2019 to 2022, defending his title five times before losing it to Leon Edwards in August 2022. Usman is aiming to reclaim the welterweight title in 2026, with plans to retire after securing both the welterweight and middleweight championships.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
ESPN
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracleufc.com
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread0.9%
Platforms2
Candidates9
Leader

Islam Makhachev

90.4% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Shavkat Rakhmonov is the UFC Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
ESPN
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracleufc.com

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the UFC Welterweight championship odds?

Fighter performance in matches, injuries, and changes in training camps can significantly affect the odds. Additionally, the outcomes of upcoming title fights and rankings play a crucial role.

How often do the odds change for UFC championship markets?

Odds can fluctuate frequently, especially after major fight announcements, results, or injuries. Real-time updates reflect the latest developments in the UFC landscape.

What is the significance of the UFC Welterweight championship?

Holding the UFC Welterweight championship represents the pinnacle of achievement in the division. It impacts fighters' careers, fan engagement, and promotional opportunities within the UFC.

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Islam Makhachev: 90.5¢ on Kalshi, 90.3¢ on Polymarket; Ian Machado Garry: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.8¢ on Polymarket; Michael Morales: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.7¢ on Polymarket; Belal Muhammad: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction Market Track Record

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado GarryWONPre-event: 76%

Prediction Market Track Record

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado GarryLOSTPre-event: 25%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry

Resolved

2026-08-16

LOSTIan Machado Garry
Pre-event: 25%

Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis

Resolved

2026-07-19

LOSTKamaru Usman
Pre-event: 33%

Prediction Market Track Record

Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du PlessisLOSTPre-event: 33%