Live prediction market odds for Who will replace Jamie Dimon as JPMorgan CEO?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Compare all 4 outcomes across 2 venuesTraders give Marianne Lake about a 49.0% chance. Doug Petno follows at 43.3%, Troy Rohrbaugh follows at 43.0%, and Jennifer Piepszak follows at 15.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 14.5 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketMarianne Lake
49.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Marianne Lake is, or is announced to be in the future, the first non-interim CEO of JPMorgan Chase after Jamie Dimon before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Co-CEOs will resolve both strikes to Yes.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Marianne Lake: 49.0¢ on Polymarket; Doug Petno: 36.0¢ on Kalshi, 50.5¢ on Polymarket; Troy Rohrbaugh: 43.0¢ on Kalshi; Jennifer Piepszak: 15.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 14.5 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Marianne Lake at 49.0¢ implies about a 49.0% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.
