Live prediction market odds for Will at least 50% of scheduled flights at JFK be cancelled on October 21, 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi.
2026-10-22
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Traders give At least 50% about a 2.0% chance. Compare prices from Kalshi.
Traders give At least 50% about a 2.0% chance. Compare prices from Kalshi.
Kalshi is tracking whether at least 50% of scheduled flights at JFK will be cancelled on October 21, 2026. Factors such as weather conditions, air traffic control issues, and operational disruptions could heavily influence flight cancellations on that day.
At least 50%
2.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the percentage of scheduled passenger and cargo flights at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK) that are cancelled during October 21, 2026 is at least 50%, then the market resolves to Yes.
EXCLUDED EVENTS “Excluded Event” means any event or circumstance arising from, or directly resulting from: (i) Any act of unlawful interference with civil aviation, including sabotage, unlawful seizure of aircraft, or interference with air navigation facilities or services; (ii) Any deliberate act or omission by any person, whether or not identified, undertaken with the purpose or reasonably foreseeable effect of disrupting operations at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK), including without limitation unauthorized unmanned aircraft operations, laser illumination, trespass upon or unauthorized presence within the air operations area, tampering with or destruction of airport, air carrier, air traffic control, or utility infrastructure serving John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK), and false reports or threats resulting in evacuation, ground stop, or suspension of operations; (iii) Any malicious cyber incident affecting systems of John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK), any air carrier, or any air navigation service provider, as characterized by the affected entity or a governmental authority; or (iv) Any security-related closure, ground stop, or operational suspension ordered by a governmental authority in response to an actual or suspected act described in clauses (i)–(iii) or to any actual or suspected act of unlawful violence, wherever occurring. HOW THE CANCELLATION PERCENTAGE IS CALCULATED The cancellation percentage is calculated by dividing the number of cancelled flights within the fixed schedule by the total number of scheduled flights and multiplying the result by 100. The result is carried to two decimal places without rounding; any digits beyond the second decimal place are truncated. Schedule baseline: The schedule baseline for this market is October 19, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Fixed scheduled-flight total: The binding total number of scheduled flights will be determined as of October 19, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This total consists of commercial passenger and cargo flights, including arrivals and departures combined, scheduled to operate at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK) during October 21, 2026. The fixed total includes any flight subsequently cancelled and is not reduced by cancellations, schedule changes, or removals occurring after the schedule baseline. Flights added after the schedule baseline are excluded from both the scheduled-flight total and the cancellation count. Cancelled flights: A flight counts as cancelled only if it is included in the fixed scheduled-flight total and is classified as cancelled by FlightAware as of the Expiration time. Cancellations made after the schedule baseline but before the beginning of October 21, 2026, including pre-emptive cancellations, are counted. Reinstated flights: A flight initially classified as cancelled that is subsequently reinstated and operates during October 21, 2026 is not counted as cancelled. Excluded flight outcomes: Delayed flights, diverted flights, and gate returns that ultimately depart are not counted as cancelled, regardless of the length of the delay. Corrections and revisions: Corrections, retractions, or restatements made by the Source Agency before Expiration will be considered. Revisions made after Expiration will not be considered. Local time and flight attribution: All dates and times relating to the scheduling and operation of flights are interpreted in the local time of John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK) unless otherwise specified. Each flight is attributed to October 21, 2026 according to its originally scheduled date of operation at the airport. AIRPORT CLOSURE If John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK) is fully closed and no scheduled flight operates for the entirety of October 21, 2026, the cancellation percentage will be deemed 100.00%. If the scheduled-flight total is zero because the airport is closed, or has been ordered or announced to be closed, for the entirety of October 21, 2026, the cancellation percentage will be deemed 100.00%. If the scheduled-flight total is zero for any other reason, the outcome will be determined pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook. This market and these products have not been endorsed by FlightAware LLC or its affiliates. Any references to FlightAware, FlightAware.com, FlightAware’s delay and cancellation page, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FlightAware LLC or its affiliates and Kalshi.
Weather conditions, such as storms or heavy snowfall, can significantly impact flight operations. Additionally, air traffic control issues or airline operational disruptions may also contribute to cancellations.
Kalshi's odds are based on real-time data and market sentiment regarding the likelihood of flight cancellations. Factors like historical cancellation rates and current airline performance are considered.
October 21, 2026, is a future date that may coincide with seasonal weather patterns that affect air travel. Understanding potential disruptions on this date helps stakeholders prepare for operational challenges.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are At least 50%: 2.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
