About This Market
Traders give Anthropic about a 98.8% chance. OpenAI follows at 1.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.5 percentage points.
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Live prediction market odds for Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Traders give Anthropic about a 98.8% chance. OpenAI follows at 1.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.5 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Key factors include financial performance, regulatory approvals, and market conditions. Additionally, strategic decisions by each company's leadership could play a crucial role.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of each company going public first.
An IPO can provide significant capital for growth and expansion, enhancing a company's public profile. It also allows early investors to realize returns on their investments.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Anthropic: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 98.5¢ on Polymarket; OpenAI: 2.0¢ on Kalshi, 1.5¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.