Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first: why do odds differ between prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 7.2 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first: how do prices and payouts work?

For example, Anthropic at 92.8¢ implies about a 92.8% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

2027-12-31

Best price · tap to trade

Anthropic92¢1.09x

OpenAI16¢6.25x

About This Market

Traders give Anthropic about a 92.8% chance. OpenAI follows at 8.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 7.2 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the competition between OpenAI and Anthropic regarding their initial public offerings. The outcome of this event could influence investor sentiment and the future landscape of AI technology funding.

Live Markets

2 platforms

OutcomeConsensus

Kalshi

Polymarket

Best price

AnthropicARB

93%

92¢

95¢

1.09x92¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	91.0%	90¢	92¢	8¢	10¢
Polymarket	94.7%	95¢	95¢	5¢	5¢

OpenAIARB

16¢

5¢

6.25x16¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	12.0%	12¢	16¢	84¢	88¢
Polymarket	4.8%	5¢	5¢	95¢	95¢

Kalshi

Polymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles

ABC BBC Bloomberg CNBC Financial Times NYSE Reuters Securities and Exchange Commission the New York Times The Wall Street Journal

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors could influence which company IPOs first?

Key factors include financial performance, regulatory approvals, and market conditions. Additionally, strategic decisions by each company's leadership could play a crucial role.

How do prediction markets work for IPO events?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of each company going public first.

What are the implications of an IPO for these companies?

An IPO can provide significant capital for growth and expansion, enhancing a company's public profile. It also allows early investors to realize returns on their investments.

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first: what does this prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first: what are the current odds?

The latest available prices are Anthropic: 91.0¢ on Kalshi, 94.7¢ on Polymarket; OpenAI: 12.0¢ on Kalshi, 4.8¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

About This Market

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Frequently Asked Questions

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Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

About This Market

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

Frequently Asked Questions

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