Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Live prediction market odds for Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
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Traders give Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026 about a 1.4% chance. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.3 percentage points.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
KalshiIf Reza Pahlavi is appointed, elected, named, designated, or succeeded to the position as the head of state or government of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
OpinionThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Predict.funThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Created At: 2026-03-02T13:01:43.495050505Z
Reza Pahlavi is the son of the last Shah of Iran and has been an advocate for democratic reforms in Iran. He has been vocal about his vision for a secular and democratic Iran.
Factors include public sentiment, political opposition, and international relations, particularly with Western nations. Additionally, internal unrest or changes in the Iranian political landscape could impact his prospects.
The year 2026 marks a potential turning point in Iran's political landscape, coinciding with the end of the current leadership's term. This timeframe may also align with broader regional and global political shifts.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026: 1.5¢ on Kalshi, 1.3¢ on Polymarket, 1.2¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
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