Colbert Told Emmy Voters to Pick Kimmel, and His Show Dropped 14 Points

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Stephen Colbert Told Emmy Voters to Pick Jimmy Kimmel. Here's What That Did to His Show's Chances

The Late Show with Stephen Colbert's probability of winning Outstanding Variety Series at the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards has fallen from 87% to 73% after Colbert posted a video during the final day of Emmy voting explicitly asking Television Academy members to vote for Jimmy Kimmel Live! instead. The move has no modern precedent in awards-season campaigning, and prediction markets have repriced the race accordingly.

Prediction-market view

Resolved Sep 15, 2026

Final prices, venue by venue

This market settled on September 15, 2026, so nothing below is tradeable. These are the last prices each venue published before settlement, not live quotes.

Kalshi prices the contract at 72%; Polymarket sits at 74%. The contract touched a period low of 64% before recovering. The spread between platforms is narrow enough to treat the consensus as reliable. The ceremony is scheduled for September 14 at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, broadcast on NBC and Peacock, giving the market 10 more days to digest the implications of a nominee telling voters to choose someone else.

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Why The Late Show Was Already the Emmy Favorite Before Colbert Intervened

The 87% probability was not sentimental guesswork. The Late Show earned nine Emmy nominations for its farewell season, a record haul across its nearly 11-year run. The nominations spanned Outstanding Variety Series, Writing, Directing, Production Design, Technical Direction, Lighting, Sound Mixing, Picture Editing, and Music Direction. A show nominated in that many craft categories usually signals broad Academy enthusiasm, the kind that translates into wins in marquee categories.

Farewell seasons carry a well-documented advantage in Emmy voting. Academy members often treat a final season as a last chance to honor a body of work. In August, Colbert accepted the Television Critics Association's Career Achievement Award, joining Johnny Carson and David Letterman as only the third late-night host to receive the honor. The TCA also gave The Late Show its award for Outstanding Achievement in Variety, Talk or Sketch, beating The Daily Show, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, and Last Week Tonight with John Oliver.

The new merged Outstanding Variety Series category, which combines the old Talk Series and Scripted Series awards into one race, made The Late Show's dominance look even more pronounced. Nine nominations plus a farewell narrative plus industry-peer recognition equaled 87%.

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What Colbert Actually Said, and Why Emmy Voters Might Listen

The video, posted to Instagram on August 25, is casual in tone but precise in its ask. "You know, there's 24 hours left in Emmy voting, and if you're anything like me, you haven't even started yet," Colbert said, seated at an ocean overlook sporting the gray goatee he debuted at the TCA ceremony. He then pulled up the Outstanding Variety Series ballot and told viewers, "I think we can all agree that Jimmy Kimmel deserves an Emmy. I don't care if you've never even seen his show. You know he deserves an Emmy." He concluded by flashing a photo of Kimmel on his tablet and asking voters to "please consider thinking that Jimmy deserves an Emmy."

This is not a general audience appeal. Emmy voting is conducted exclusively by Television Academy members, industry professionals who are Colbert's direct peers. A public endorsement from the most-nominated host in the category, one who just received a career achievement award, carries unusual weight with this electorate. These are not casual viewers scrolling past a celebrity post. They are the people filling out the ballots.

The gesture has a backstory that amplifies its credibility. Kimmel had publicly supported Colbert during the 2025 Emmy cycle after CBS announced The Late Show's cancellation, even taking out a billboard reading "I'm voting for Stephen." Colbert framed his endorsement as reciprocity, which makes it harder for voters to dismiss as a joke. When a peer says "vote for my competitor" and means it, the endorsement lands differently than a standard For Your Consideration ad.

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The Strongest Case Against the Market: Why The Late Show Could Win Despite Colbert

A 14-point drop is a strong market signal, but the case for fading this move is not trivial.

First, voting had largely concluded by the time Colbert posted. Emmy ballots were due within 24 hours, and many Academy members vote early. If the majority of ballots were already cast before the video went live, the endorsement's practical impact on the actual outcome may be far smaller than a 14-point repricing implies.

Second, farewell-season sympathy voting is deeply embedded in Academy behavior. Television Academy members have a long track record of rewarding final seasons regardless of what the nominees say publicly. Colbert's video may register as charming rather than dispositive. Voters who have already decided to send off The Late Show with a trophy are unlikely to reverse course because the host told them to.

Third, the institutional machinery behind the show is still working. CBS mounted a formal Emmy campaign for The Late Show, complete with screening events and targeted outreach to voting members. A network campaign reaches voters through multiple channels, and one Instagram video, however sincere, may not override weeks of organized lobbying.

Finally, the contract hit 64% before bouncing back to 73%, a 9-point recovery from its low. That rebound suggests some traders view the sell-off as an overreaction. At 73%, The Late Show remains the clear implied favorite. The market has not handed the category to Kimmel; it has acknowledged that the race is no longer a foregone conclusion.

For live prices across the full field, the Outstanding Variety Series odds hub covers all nominees and updates in real time through the September 14 ceremony.

The core question is whether Colbert's endorsement actually moved enough ballots to matter, or whether the market is pricing a compelling story rather than a changed outcome. At 73%, The Late Show is still a heavy favorite. But for the first time all season, it is a favorite whose own host told voters to look elsewhere.