Leela Gray Leads Luna 51-46 in First FL-13 Poll of 2026

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House Majority PAC Poll Shows Leela Gray Leading Luna 51 to 46 in FL-13

The first public poll of the FL-13 general election shows Democrat Leela Gray, a retired U.S. Army brigadier general, leading Republican incumbent Anna Paulina Luna 51% to 46%. The survey was conducted August 25 through 27 by Hart Research Associates on behalf of the House Majority PAC, a Democratic-aligned super PAC. That five-point Gray advantage represents a near-total inversion of the 2024 result, when Luna carried FL-13 by 54.8% to 45.2%, a margin of nearly ten points.

Gray, who won the Democratic primary on August 18 with 65% of the vote, has been on the general-election stage for barely two weeks. The DCCC immediately added her to its Red to Blue program, a signal that national Democrats consider the seat genuinely flippable. Luna's campaign, meanwhile, has been responding to a DCCC ad criticizing her investment in a political donor's energy company, a controversy that may be baked into the poll's topline.

The poll alone would be notable for any incumbent trailing in her own district. But the real story is what happened to Luna's prediction market position once this data circulated.

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Anna Paulina Luna's FL-13 Prediction Market Probability Drops 18 Points

The Republican Party's implied probability of winning FL-13 fell from 90% to a period low of 54% before recovering to 72%, where it sits now on both Kalshi and Polymarket (73% on the latter). That 18-point net decline over three days is the kind of repricing typically reserved for candidates facing indictments or late-breaking scandals, not a single opponent-funded survey.

To put the magnitude in context: Luna won reelection by nearly ten points just two years ago. Incumbents who win by double digits almost never trade below 85% this early in a cycle. A 72% implied probability translates to roughly a one-in-four chance that Luna loses. For a second-term Republican in a district Donald Trump carried, that number reflects genuine market anxiety, not a rounding error.

The bounce from 54% back to 72% suggests some bettors viewed the initial selloff as an overreaction, buying Republican contracts at a discount. But the recovery stopped well short of the pre-poll baseline. The market has absorbed the poll and priced in a competitive race.

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Are There Polls for the FL-13 House Race in 2026?

As of September 4, 2026, only one public poll exists for the FL-13 general election: the House Majority PAC survey showing Gray ahead 51 to 46. A second scenario tested in the same research included independent candidate Tony C. D'Arrigo and produced a tighter result, with Gray at 44% and Luna at 43%.

No independent or nonpartisan pollster has released numbers for this race. That matters. Polls commissioned by party-aligned organizations carry structural incentives: groups tend to publicize surveys that support their fundraising narratives and suppress ones that do not. The House Majority PAC needs to justify spending in FL-13, and a five-point Gray lead is the data point that opens donor wallets.

The forecast model at 535 noted that the Democratic-sponsored polls did not materially move its own projection, a sign that at least one quantitative model is treating the data with appropriate skepticism. The prediction market, by contrast, moved sharply. That gap between the model's restraint and the market's reaction is itself informative: it suggests bettors are weighting narrative momentum (a retired general, a fresh DCCC investment, an incumbent's ethics questions) as much as the raw poll number.

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The Case Against Luna: Why 72% May Still Be Too High

The strongest argument for Gray does not rest on a single poll. It rests on structural factors that have shifted since 2024. First, FL-13's electorate in a midterm year skews older and whiter than in a presidential year, but it also drops in Republican turnout when Trump is not on the ballot. Luna's 2024 margin benefited from presidential coattails that will not exist in November 2026.

Second, Gray's profile is tailor-made for the district. A retired brigadier general and attorney, she fits the mold of the post-2018 Democratic candidates who have flipped suburban-military districts by running on national security credentials rather than progressive litmus tests. The Pinellas County portion of FL-13 includes veteran and military-adjacent populations, and Gray's resume speaks directly to that constituency.

Third, Luna has accumulated liabilities. The investment controversy flagged by the DCCC gives Democrats an opposition-research hook, and Luna's high-profile social media presence has generated moments that energize her base but alienate swing voters. If independent spending floods the district, those vulnerabilities become attack-ad material before October.

None of this guarantees a Gray victory. Luna still holds the fundraising infrastructure of an incumbent, the Republican registration advantage in the district, and the name recognition that comes with two terms. But a 72% probability means the market is pricing roughly a 28% chance she loses, and that number is no longer a fringe bet. It is a plausible outcome backed by at least one data point and a credible challenger.

Prediction-market view

Live prices, venue by venue

Compare the latest YES price at each venue. Check market rules, liquidity, and fees before trading.

Anna Paulina Luna (R)

Consensus YES price across 3 venues

71%average

KalshiBest YES price72¢Polymarket US72¢Polymarket72¢

Leela Gray (D)

Consensus YES price across 3 venues

29%average

PolymarketBest YES price28¢Kalshi30¢Polymarket US30¢

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What Moves This Market Next

The next catalyst is straightforward: an independent poll. If a nonpartisan survey confirms Gray within striking distance, expect the Republican Party's implied probability to test its 54% period low again. If a credible poll shows Luna comfortably ahead, the contract snaps back above 85% and the House Majority PAC survey gets filed as an outlier.

Between now and the November 4 resolution date, watch for three specific triggers. First, FEC filings in mid-October will reveal whether national money is actually flowing into FL-13 or whether the DCCC's Red to Blue designation was symbolic. Second, any debate between Luna and Gray will be a high-variance event for a race this close. Third, early voting data from Pinellas County will provide the first hard behavioral signal of whether turnout patterns match the poll or the 2024 baseline.

For the latest probabilities, the FL-13 House winner odds page tracks live prices across Kalshi and Polymarket. As of today, those prices say Luna is still the favorite. They also say, for the first time, that she is in a real race.