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Live prediction market odds for FL-13 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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FL-13 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Anna Paulina Luna (R)72¢1.39xKalshiLeela Gray (D)30¢3.33xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Anna Paulina Luna (R) about a 71.3% chance. Leela Gray (D) follows at 28.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Traders give Anna Paulina Luna (R) about a 71.3% chance. Leela Gray (D) follows at 28.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the FL-13 House winner for the upcoming 2026 elections. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues leading up to the election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
AP
Anna Paulina Luna (R)
71%
Kalshi72¢
Polymarket US72¢
Polymarket72¢
Kalshi1.39x72¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
71.0%71¢72¢28¢29¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
71.5%71¢72¢28¢29¢
PolymarketPolymarket
71.5%71¢72¢28¢29¢
LG
Leela Gray (D)
29%
Kalshi30¢
Polymarket US30¢
Polymarket28¢
Kalshi3.33x30¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
29.0%29¢30¢70¢71¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
29.5%29¢30¢70¢71¢
PolymarketPolymarket
27.0%26¢28¢72¢74¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Anna Paulina Luna (R)

Anna Paulina Luna is the U.S. Representative for Florida's 13th Congressional District, serving her second term in the 119th Congress. She previously served in the U.S. Air Force from 2009 to 2014, earning the Air Force Achievement Medal. As the first Mexican-American woman elected to Congress from Florida, she chairs the Task Force on the Declassification of Federal Secrets and serves on the House Committees on Foreign Affairs and Oversight and Government Reform.

About Leela Gray (D)

Leela Gray is a retired U.S. Army brigadier general and Democratic candidate for Florida's 13th Congressional District. She served 30 years in the military, including two combat deployments and a peacekeeping mission, and later earned a law degree to assist veterans. Her extensive leadership experience and commitment to public service make her a notable contender in this election.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Anna Paulina Luna (R)

71.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: FL-13 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for FL-13 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the FL-13 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the FL-13 House winner?

Polling data, candidate profiles, and campaign funding play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, local and national political trends can impact voter turnout and preferences.

How do prediction markets work for elections?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective wisdom of market participants regarding the likelihood of various candidates winning.

What is the significance of the FL-13 district in elections?

FL-13 is often viewed as a bellwether district, making it a key indicator of broader electoral trends. Winning this seat can provide momentum for the party in the lead-up to national elections.

What does the FL-13 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest FL-13 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Anna Paulina Luna (R): 71.0¢ on Kalshi, 71.5¢ on Polymarket, 71.5¢ on Polymarket US; Leela Gray (D): 29.0¢ on Kalshi, 27.0¢ on Polymarket, 29.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Leela Gray Leads Luna 51-46 in First FL-13 Poll of 2026A House Majority PAC survey put Gray up five points, erasing Luna's 90% market edge to 72% in three days. Gray won her primary just two weeks earlier.Sep 4, 2026Luna Rises to 75% in FL-13 After Gray Wins Democratic PrimaryGray's 65% primary win cleared the Democratic field. Luna's price climbed 9 points as market ambiguity dissolved and her incumbency edge came into focus.Aug 30, 2026Leela Gray Wins FL-13 Primary, but Luna's 9.7-Point Margin Looms LargeGray's 65% primary win pushed Democratic odds to 32%, but Luna raised $3.2M vs. Gray's $1.2M and no national Democrats have committed spending.Aug 25, 2026FL-13 Democratic Win Probability Hits 37% After Gray Unifies FieldFord's exit and a Hoyer endorsement lifted Gray's win odds 13 points in 72 hours; Kalshi and Polymarket still show a 34-point spread.Jul 25, 2026