Tom Cruise's Oscar Nomination Odds Rise to 62% Despite 'Digger' Flop

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Tom Cruise's Best Actor nomination odds for "Digger" rise from 46% to 62% in four days

Tom Cruise's market for a Best Actor nomination for "Digger" has risen from 46% to 62% in four days, even as the film stumbles. Alejandro González Iñárritu's oil-tycoon satire, released by Warner Bros. on Oct. 2, opened to roughly $8 million against a reported $160 million budget and sits around 50% to 52% on Rotten Tomatoes. Coverage from Vulture, Variety and the Los Angeles Times frames him as one of several actors fighting for perhaps two open spots.

Live market odds

2 venues

Oscar nominations for Best Actor?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Tom CruiseIn this story

58%

KalshiBest price1.72x58¢Polymarket1.59x63¢

Sebastian Stan

16%

KalshiBest price7.14x14¢Polymarket5.56x18¢

Matt Damon

94%

KalshiBest price1.06x94¢Polymarket1.04x95.8¢

Adam Driver

4%

KalshiBest price20.00x5¢Polymarket16.39x6.1¢

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Compare every venueCents per $1 payout, before fees

The contract sits 18 percentage points above its period low of 44%. Kalshi shows 63% and Polymarket 62%, a one-point spread that leaves the two venues in agreement. This is the nomination market, which resolves when nominations are announced on Jan. 21, 2027, not a bet on Cruise winning the statue.

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How the Cruise "Digger" market moved over four days

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Cruise's Best Actor nomination price, four days through Oct. 12, 2026: from 46% to 62%.

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What the coverage says about Cruise's chances, and what it doesn't explain

The reporting that landed during the move reads mostly as a warning. Vulture asked whether Cruise can still contend if "Digger" flops, while noting that a Penn-style win for transformative work shows the acting branch still rewards big performances. Variety weighed whether the film can carry him to the ballot. The LA Times asked why the era's biggest movie star still lacks a competitive Oscar, and Vanity Fair called the campaign tricky.

We could not establish a cause for the rise. The coverage overlaps the window, but none of it reports new reception, precursor buzz or a studio campaign commitment that would explain a 16-point climb. One reading is that traders are pricing Cruise's standing with the Academy: three acting nominations (Born on the Fourth of July, Jerry Maguire, Magnolia), a Best Picture nomination as a producer on Top Gun: Maverick, and an honorary Oscar at the 2025 Governors Awards presented by Iñárritu himself. That is an interpretation, not a sourced cause.

The field explains why the remaining slots matter. Matt Damon (The Odyssey), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine) and Andrew Scott (Elsinore) trade as strong favorites at 87% to 93%. Ryan Gosling sits near 41%. With three seats largely spoken for, Cruise at 62% is effectively priced ahead of Gosling for the final two.

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What could confirm or reverse Cruise's Oscar nomination odds

The clearest open question is money. Reporting has raised whether Warner Bros. will fund a roughly $10 million awards campaign after the opening weekend. A visible push, such as screenings, guild mailers and trade ads, would support the current price; a quiet retreat would undercut it.

After that, the calendar runs through precursor season. Guild and critics' group recognition would show whether the defenses of the performance are spreading to voters, and a shutout would argue the "Digger" reception matters more than Cruise's goodwill. The market resolves when Academy nominations are announced on Jan. 21, 2027.