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Live prediction market odds for Oscar nominations for Best Actor?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi

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Kalshi / Polymarket

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Oscar nominations for Best Actor?

2027-01-21

Best price · tap to trade

John Malkovich93¢1.08xKalshiMatt Damon92¢1.09xKalshiAndrew Scott88¢1.14xKalshi
Compare all 28 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give John Malkovich about a 90.8% chance. Matt Damon follows at 90.0%, Andrew Scott follows at 87.5%, and Ryan Gosling follows at 52.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 5.5 percentage points.

Traders give John Malkovich about a 90.8% chance. Matt Damon follows at 90.0%, Andrew Scott follows at 87.5%, and Ryan Gosling follows at 52.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 5.5 percentage points.

Oscar nominations for Best Actor are being tracked on Polymarket and Kalshi. This event influences industry recognition and can significantly impact the careers of the nominated actors and their associated films.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JM
John Malkovich
91%
Kalshi93¢
Polymarket91¢
Kalshi1.08x93¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
91.0%91¢93¢7¢9¢
PolymarketPolymarket
90.5%90¢91¢9¢10¢
MD
Matt Damon
90%
Kalshi92¢
Polymarket93¢
Kalshi1.09x92¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
89.0%89¢92¢8¢11¢
PolymarketPolymarket
91.1%90¢93¢8¢10¢
AS
Andrew Scott
88%
Kalshi88¢
Polymarket91¢
Kalshi1.14x88¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
87.0%86¢88¢12¢14¢
PolymarketPolymarket
88.0%87¢91¢9¢13¢
RG
Ryan GoslingARB
52%
Kalshi55¢
Polymarket50¢
Kalshi1.82x55¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
55.0%52¢55¢45¢48¢
PolymarketPolymarket
49.5%49¢50¢50¢51¢
TC
Tom CruiseARB
39%
Kalshi38¢
Polymarket43¢
Kalshi2.63x38¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
36.5%35¢38¢62¢65¢
PolymarketPolymarket
41.5%40¢43¢57¢60¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About John Malkovich

John Malkovich is an American actor, producer, and director. He has received two Academy Award nominations and a Primetime Emmy Award. Malkovich is known for his versatility and has a diverse body of work in film, television, and theater.

About Matt Damon

Matt Damon is an American actor, screenwriter, and producer. He co-wrote and starred in 'Good Will Hunting,' earning an Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay. Damon has received multiple award nominations, including Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild Awards.

About Ryan Gosling

Ryan Gosling is a Canadian actor and producer. He earned Academy Award nominations for 'Half Nelson' (2006), 'La La Land' (2016), and 'Barbie' (2023). His diverse roles and critical acclaim establish him as a leading figure in contemporary cinema.

About Tom Cruise

Tom Cruise is an American actor and producer. He has been nominated for four Academy Awards, including Best Actor for 'Born on the Fourth of July' and 'Jerry Maguire.' His extensive experience and critical acclaim in leading roles make him a significant figure in the Best Actor category.

About Josh O'Connor

Josh O'Connor is a British actor known for his role as Charles, Prince of Wales, in Netflix's 'The Crown' (2019–2020), earning him an Emmy and a Golden Globe. He gained critical acclaim for his lead role in 'God's Own Country' (2017), winning a British Independent Film Award. O'Connor's diverse filmography includes 'La Chimera' (2023), 'Challengers' (2024), and 'Wake Up Dead Man' (2025).

About Sam Rockwell

Sam Rockwell is an American actor known for his versatile performances in film and television. He won the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor for his role in 'Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri' and received Emmy nominations for portraying Bob Fosse in 'Fosse/Verdon' and George W. Bush in 'Vice'. His extensive experience and critical acclaim make him a strong contender for future Best Actor nominations.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread5.5%
Platforms2
Candidates28
Leader

John Malkovich

90.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Oscar nominations for Best Actor?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Sebastian Stan has been nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for Best Actor nominations?

Odds are influenced by performances in films, critical reception, and awards season momentum. Additionally, industry buzz and media coverage play a crucial role.

When will the Oscar nominations be announced?

The Oscar nominations for Best Actor will be announced on January 21, 2027. This date is critical for shaping the awards season narrative.

How do prediction markets reflect changes in public sentiment about nominees?

Prediction markets adjust in real-time based on new information, such as award wins or significant film releases. As public and critical sentiment shifts, so do the odds.

What does the Oscar nominations for Best Actor prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Oscar nominations for Best Actor odds?

The latest available prices are John Malkovich: 91.0¢ on Kalshi, 90.5¢ on Polymarket; Matt Damon: 89.0¢ on Kalshi, 91.1¢ on Polymarket; Andrew Scott: 87.0¢ on Kalshi, 88.0¢ on Polymarket; Ryan Gosling: 55.0¢ on Kalshi, 49.5¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

2027 Oscar Best Actor Predictions Put Gosling at 57%Ryan Gosling has a market-implied 57% chance of receiving a 2027 Best Actor nomination for Project Hail Mary.Aug 21, 2026Turturro at 26% for Best Actor NominationA 12pp surge in 3 days prices a zero-time Oscar nominee as a real contender. Kalshi sits at 19% while Polymarket has him at 33%.Aug 14, 2026Adam Driver at 27% for Best Actor Oscar NominationDriver's implied probability doubled in 72 hours across Kalshi and Polymarket, with no confirmed project attached to his name.Aug 12, 2026Aramayo Oscar Best Actor Nomination Odds Fall to 4% Post-CeremonyBAFTA winner Aramayo was shut out of the Oscar Best Actor slate. The 25pp collapse from 30% prices a settled outcome, not a live race.Aug 9, 2026

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

2026 FIFA World Cup Final: Attendance

Resolved

2026-07-20

WONTom Cruise
Pre-event: 0%

Prediction Market Track Record

2026 FIFA World Cup Final: AttendanceWONPre-event: 0%