Tom Dyas's Odds Hit 98% in Kelowna Mayor Race on Partial Count

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Chances of Tom Dyas Winning Kelowna Mayor: Leading, No Confirmed Result

Incumbent Tom Dyas led former MP Ron Cannan in Kelowna's October 17, 2026 mayoral race, but the sourced reporting does not confirm a final winner. In an early update with about 45% of the count tallied (10 of 22 polls), Dyas had 49.74% of the vote to Cannan's 48.94%, according to Castanet. That was a gap of under one point. Later updates showed a wider lead. Official results are due October 21.

Traders moved well beyond that early count. Polymarket's "Kelowna mayoral election winner?" market priced Dyas at 98% on Oct. 18, up about 68 percentage points from 30% three days earlier. That 98% is an implied probability that Dyas wins. It is not a vote share, and it does not forecast his margin.

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Kelowna mayoral election winner?

This market settled on October 22, 2026, so nothing below is tradeable. These are the last prices each venue published before settlement, not live quotes.

Compare every venueClosing prices, not an entry point

1D7D30D

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How the Dyas Market Moved as Election-Night Counts Came In

The lead changed hands during the night. Dyas opened with about 51% when 5 of 22 polls had reported. Cannan briefly took the lead after nine polls. Dyas then moved back ahead, with Castanet's 10-of-22 update showing 49.74% to 48.94%. By the 17-of-22 mark around 10:30 p.m. local time he held about 50.9% to Cannan's 47.8%, according to Lake Country Calendar and KelownaNow. Later Castanet updates showed the lead at about 3 points. CBC called the race neck and neck, with fewer than 200 votes separating the two at one point.

The sources do not show which report drove each price change, and no trading-volume data was verified.

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Are There Polls for Tom Dyas in the Kelowna Mayor Race?

No scientific public pre-election polls of the Dyas-Cannan race surfaced in our research; only unscientific Castanet reader polls did. The Castanet and CBC figures are partial election-night counts of real ballots, not polls. Andrew Uitvlugt was the third candidate on the mayoral ballot.

The market's 98% measures something different from a vote share. The vote share records how ballots split. The market price shows how confident traders are that Dyas finishes first.

The contest follows a public falling out between the two men over tax hikes, councillor salaries, City Hall transparency, and how to handle crime and homelessness. Dyas campaigned on more than $140 million in grants secured during his term. Cannan ran on cutting spending and opening up City Hall.

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When Are Official Kelowna Mayoral Results, and What Could Change the Dyas Price?

The City of Kelowna is scheduled to confirm official results by 4 p.m. on October 21, 2026. Until then, results remain unofficial, and Cannan had already held the lead once during the night. Margins under 200 votes, of the kind CBC described, can flip on late ballots.

The market's listed resolution date is October 17, but its exact settlement rules were not sourced, so readers should not assume how it treats a disputed or recounted result. Live pricing is available on the Kelowna mayoral election winner market page. The official City of Kelowna declaration is the result to rely on.