GTA 6 Is Eligible for Game of the Year; Kalshi Odds Hit 80%

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Will GTA 6 Win Game of the Year 2026? Eligibility Confirmed, Market Jumps to 80%

Grand Theft Auto VI is eligible to win Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2026, and Kalshi's "2026 Game of the Year?" market priced it at 80% on Oct 18. The show's updated FAQ requires games to be commercially available by Nov 20, 2026 (9 p.m. PT), and GTA VI launches Nov 19. That clears the cutoff by about one day, as Vice reported on Oct 15 and Prediction.com detailed. Eligibility is not a nomination, and no nominees have been announced.

Live market odds

1 venue

2026 Game of the Year?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi.

Grand Theft Auto VIIn this story

81%

Kalshi1.23x81¢

Resident Evil Requiem

10%

Kalshi10.00x10¢

Control Resonant

3%

Kalshi33.33x3¢

Phantom Blade Zero

6%

Kalshi16.67x6¢

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On Kalshi, the Grand Theft Auto VI contract rose from 64% on Oct 15 to 80% on Oct 18, a gain of roughly 16 percentage points. Push Square and Polygon reported the FAQ change on the same day. The rally followed the FAQ update, but no source ties the price move to the ruling beyond that timing.

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How the GTA VI Game of the Year Price Moved Over Three Days

The climb came in stages. When Prediction.com published its eligibility report on Oct 16, the contract stood at 74%, about 10 percentage points above the period low of 64%. It then added roughly 6 more points to reach 80% by Oct 18.

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The FAQ mattered because the release margin is so thin. GTA VI arrives on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S on Nov 19, a date Screen Rant describes as the final official release date. LEVEL UP notes that the eligibility cutoff changes every year, and that some high-profile games have missed the ceremony by launching one day after the deadline. Before the FAQ update, traders had to price the risk that GTA VI would fall into the 2027 cycle.

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What Could Still Reverse the GTA VI Game of the Year Price

The game still has two hurdles. A jury must nominate it, and it must then beat the rest of the 2026 field. LEVEL UP calls GTA VI "all but certain" to appear in several categories, but that is a projection. No ballot has been published.

The release date is the most direct risk. The game has been delayed before, and any slip past Nov 20 would remove it from the 2026 window. Pre-load opens Nov 12. Insider NateTheHate has claimed review codes will reach critics before the end of October, but Rockstar and Take-Two have not confirmed that. Early reviews would give traders their first quality signal.

The sources do not explain the remaining 20% of implied probability. Readers can track live pricing on the 2026 Game of the Year odds page. The Game Awards has not announced a date for nominations. The ceremony is set for Dec 10 at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, and the contract resolves Dec 31.