About This Market
Alex de Minaur vs.
Alex de Minaur vs. Arthur Fils — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-08-19. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Live prediction market odds for Alex de Minaur vs. Arthur Fils. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and ProphetX.

ATP·Resolved 2026-08-19
This market resolved on 2026-08-19. Arthur Fils was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Alex de Minaur vs.
Alex de Minaur vs. Arthur Fils — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-08-19. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Arthur FilsWINNER | 99% | 99% | 100% | 91% |
Alex de Minaur | 1% | 1% | 0% | 21% |
Arthur Fils
97.2% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.
KalshiIf Arthur Fils wins the Fils vs de Minaur professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Cincinnati Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Fils vs de Minaur professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Cincinnati Round Of 16 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fils and Alex de Minaur in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 19, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fils' if Arthur Fils advances against Alex de Minaur. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Arthur Fils. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to the winner of the Arthur Fils vs Alex de Minaur ATP match scheduled for August 19 at 10:00AM. If the match does not begin due to a walkover, forfeit, injury, or any other cancellation prior to the first point being played, the market will settle to fair market price. If a player retires during the match, the opponent will be recorded as the winner. Outcome sourced from ATP.
Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are Arthur Fils: 99.0¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 90.9¢ on ProphetX, 99.0¢ on Polymarket US; Alex de Minaur: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 20.5¢ on ProphetX, 1.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 20.4 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Arthur Fils at 97.2¢ implies about a 97.2% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.