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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket US / Novig / Polymarket / ProphetX

Andrey Rublev Wins: Andrey Rublev vs. Hugo Gaston

ATP·Resolved 2026-09-27

This market resolved on 2026-09-27. Andrey Rublev was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket and Polymarket US and ProphetX.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Andrey Rublev wins the Gaston vs Rublev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Hangzhou Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Gaston vs Rublev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Hangzhou Quarterfinal after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi Rules

Novig

Primary Rule

Andrey Rublev in Andrey Rublev @ Hugo Gaston Quarterfinals (ATP); settled by Novig.

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market refers to the tennis match between Hugo Gaston and Andrey Rublev in the Hangzhou Open, originally scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hugo Gaston' if Hugo Gaston advances against Andrey Rublev. This market will resolve to 'Andrey Rublev' if Andrey Rublev advances against Hugo Gaston. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Polymarket US

Primary Rule

This market will settle to the winner of the Hugo Gaston vs Andrey Rublev ATP match scheduled for September 27 at 1:30AM. If the match does not begin due to a walkover, forfeit, injury, or any other cancellation prior to the first point being played, the market will settle to fair market price. If a player retires during the match, the opponent will be recorded as the winner. Outcome sourced from ATP.

ProphetX

Primary Rule

Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules

Resolution Oracles

ProphetX Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Andrey Rublev vs. Hugo Gaston prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Andrey Rublev vs. Hugo Gaston odds?

The last available prices are Andrey Rublev: 98.5¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 82.7¢ on ProphetX, 99.0¢ on Polymarket US, 81.0¢ on Novig; Hugo Gaston: 1.5¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 20.1¢ on ProphetX, 1.0¢ on Polymarket US, 20.0¢ on Novig. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Andrey Rublev vs. Hugo Gaston odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 20.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Andrey Rublev vs. Hugo Gaston prediction market payouts work?

For example, Andrey Rublev at 92.2¢ implies about a 92.2% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Candidate
Andrey RublevWINNER	99%	99%	81%	100%	83%
Hugo Gaston	2%	1%	20%	0%	20%

Andrey Rublev Wins: Andrey Rublev vs. Hugo Gaston

Andrey Rublev Wins: Andrey Rublev vs. Hugo Gaston

About This Market

Price History

Final Closing Odds

Resolution Oracles

Frequently Asked Questions

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Andrey Rublev Wins: Andrey Rublev vs. Hugo Gaston

Andrey Rublev Wins: Andrey Rublev vs. Hugo Gaston

About This Market

Price History

Final Closing Odds

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Andrey Rublev vs. Hugo Gaston

Frequently Asked Questions

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