About This Market
Ben Shelton vs.
Ben Shelton vs. Frances Tiafoe: ATP Tennis match held on 2026-09-11. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Live prediction market odds for Ben Shelton vs. Frances Tiafoe. Compare prices across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket and ProphetX.

ATP·Resolved 2026-09-11
This market resolved on 2026-09-11. Ben Shelton was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 93%.
Ben Shelton vs.
Ben Shelton vs. Frances Tiafoe: ATP Tennis match held on 2026-09-11. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Ben SheltonWINNER | 100% | 83% | 94% | 92% |
Frances Tiafoe | 1% | 18% | 7% | 10% |
Ben Shelton
92.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket and ProphetX.
KalshiIf Frances Tiafoe wins the Tiafoe vs Shelton professional tennis match in the 2026 US Open Men Singles Semifinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Tiafoe vs Shelton professional tennis match in the 2026 US Open Men Singles Semifinal after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
NovigFrances Tiafoe in Ben Shelton @ Frances Tiafoe Semifinals (ATP); settled by Novig.
If the contract cannot be settled on the stated outcome, Novig settles it at fair market value (FMV) instead of refunding it.
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Ben Shelton. This market will resolve to 'Ben Shelton' if Ben Shelton advances against Frances Tiafoe. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sports moneyline - resolves based on official game outcome per ProphetX Prediction Rules
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, ProphetX in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are Ben Shelton: 99.5¢ on Kalshi, 94.0¢ on Polymarket, 92.1¢ on ProphetX, 82.5¢ on Novig; Frances Tiafoe: 0.5¢ on Kalshi, 7.0¢ on Polymarket, 10.2¢ on ProphetX, 17.5¢ on Novig. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 17.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, Ben Shelton at 92.0¢ implies about a 92.0% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.