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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Novig / Polymarket

Jaime Faria Wins: Jaime Faria vs. Shintaro Mochizuki

ATP·Resolved 2026-09-28

This market resolved on 2026-09-28. Jaime Faria was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 95%.

About This Market

Jaime Faria vs.

Jaime Faria vs. Shintaro Mochizuki: ATP Tennis match held on 2026-09-28. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market Prices Compare Fees Before You Trade New to Polymarket?

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Novig and Polymarket.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Jaime Faria wins the Mochizuki vs Faria professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Tokyo Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

The following market refers to the Mochizuki vs Faria professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Tokyo Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks). Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi Rules

Novig

Primary Rule

Jaime Faria in Jaime Faria @ Shintaro Mochizuki 1st Qualifying Round (ATP); settled by Novig.

Polymarket

Primary Rule

This market refers to the tennis match between Shintaro Mochizuki and Jaime Faria in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Shintaro Mochizuki' if Shintaro Mochizuki advances against Jaime Faria. This market will resolve to 'Jaime Faria' if Jaime Faria advances against Shintaro Mochizuki. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Jaime Faria vs. Shintaro Mochizuki prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.

What were the last available Jaime Faria vs. Shintaro Mochizuki odds?

The last available prices are Jaime Faria: 94.5¢ on Kalshi, 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 88.5¢ on Novig; Shintaro Mochizuki: 5.5¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 15.5¢ on Novig. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.

Why do Jaime Faria vs. Shintaro Mochizuki odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 15.4 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Jaime Faria vs. Shintaro Mochizuki prediction market payouts work?

For example, Jaime Faria at 94.3¢ implies about a 94.3% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.

Candidate
Jaime FariaWINNER	95%	89%	100%
Shintaro Mochizuki	6%	16%	0%

Jaime Faria Wins: Jaime Faria vs. Shintaro Mochizuki

About This Market

Price History

Jaime Faria Wins: Jaime Faria vs. Shintaro Mochizuki

About This Market

Price History

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Final Closing Odds

Resolution Oracles

Frequently Asked Questions

Jaime Faria Wins: Jaime Faria vs. Shintaro Mochizuki

About This Market

Price History

Jaime Faria Wins: Jaime Faria vs. Shintaro Mochizuki

About This Market

Price History

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Final Closing Odds

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Jaime Faria vs. Shintaro Mochizuki

Frequently Asked Questions