Why do Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 1.1 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms prediction market payouts work?

For example, Democrats Sweep at 61.5¢ implies about a 61.5% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.

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Kalshi / Polymarket US / Opinion

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

2026-11-17

Best price · tap to trade

Democrats Sweep62¢1.61x

Republicans Sweep8¢12.50x

Compare all 3 outcomes across 3 venues

Live Markets

3 platforms

OutcomeConsensus

Kalshi

Polymarket US

Opinion

Best price

Democrats Sweep

62%

62¢

1.61x62¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	61.0%	61¢	62¢	38¢	39¢
Polymarket US	62.0%	61¢	62¢	38¢	39¢

Republicans Sweep

8¢

10¢

12.66x8¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Kalshi	7.9%	8¢	8¢	92¢	92¢
Polymarket US	9.0%	9¢	10¢	90¢	91¢

D Senate, R House

single venue

Platform	Implied %	Yes bid / ask		No bid / ask
Opinion	—	0¢			100¢

Kalshi

Polymarket US Opinion

Opinion

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Polymarket US.

Rules for Candidate:

Polymarket US

Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party wins control of the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. Outcome sourced from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Senate, and the United States House of Representatives. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chambers voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chambers voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers. For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that partys count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.

Frequently Asked Questions

What determines the resolution of this market?

The market resolves based on the final composition of Congress after the elections on November 17, 2026. Changes in party representation will directly impact the outcome.

How do candidate announcements affect the odds?

Candidate announcements can shift public perception and polling data, leading to changes in market odds. As candidates enter or exit the race, the likelihood of party control can fluctuate.

When do the elections take place?

The elections for the 2026 Midterms are scheduled for November 17, 2026. This date is crucial for determining the balance of power in Congress.

What does the Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Opinion in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms odds?

The latest available prices are Democrats Sweep: 61.0¢ on Kalshi, 62.0¢ on Polymarket US; Republicans Sweep: 7.9¢ on Kalshi, 9.0¢ on Polymarket US; D Senate, R House: 0.2¢ on Opinion. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

About This Market

Price History

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Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Frequently Asked Questions

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