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Live prediction market odds for NC-03 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

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NC-03 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Greg Murphy (R)87¢1.15xKalshiRaymond Smith Jr (D)15¢6.67xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Greg Murphy (R) about a 86.5% chance. Raymond Smith Jr (D) follows at 13.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.9 percentage points.

Traders give Greg Murphy (R) about a 86.5% chance. Raymond Smith Jr (D) follows at 13.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.9 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the NC-03 House race, set to resolve on November 3, 2026. The market will be determined by the official election results, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigns and voter sentiment leading up to the election date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
GM
Greg Murphy (R)
87%
Kalshi87¢
—
Polymarket87¢
Kalshi1.15x87¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
86.0%85¢87¢13¢15¢
PolymarketPolymarket
87.0%85¢87¢13¢15¢
RS
Raymond Smith Jr (D)
13%
Kalshi15¢
Polymarket US16¢
Polymarket16¢
Kalshi6.67x15¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
12.1%9¢15¢85¢91¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
13.0%13¢16¢84¢87¢
PolymarketPolymarket
15.0%14¢16¢84¢86¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Greg Murphy (R)

Greg Murphy is the U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 3rd congressional district, serving since 2019. Before his congressional tenure, he was a practicing urologist and served in the North Carolina House of Representatives from 2015 to 2019. As a physician and legislator, Murphy has been active in health policy, including leading efforts to combat the opioid crisis in North Carolina.

About Raymond Smith Jr (D)

Gregory Murphy is the current U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, serving since 2019. Before his congressional tenure, he was a member of the North Carolina House of Representatives from 2015 to 2019, where he authored the STOP Act to combat the opioid epidemic. His extensive legislative experience and leadership in health policy make him a significant figure in the district's political landscape.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.9%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Greg Murphy (R)

86.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: NC-03 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for NC-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the NC-03 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the resolution date for the NC-03 House winner market?

The market resolves on November 3, 2026, coinciding with the general election date.

How do odds change for the NC-03 House winner market?

Odds fluctuate based on candidate campaigns, polling data, and voter engagement as the election date approaches.

What determines the outcome of the NC-03 House winner market?

The outcome is determined by the official election results announced after the polls close on November 3, 2026.

What does the NC-03 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest NC-03 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Greg Murphy (R): 86.0¢ on Kalshi, 87.0¢ on Polymarket; Raymond Smith Jr (D): 12.1¢ on Kalshi, 15.0¢ on Polymarket, 13.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Murphy's NC-03 Win Probability Falls 9 Points With No Clear CatalystMurphy holds 79% in a R+16.8 district with a 9-to-1 fundraising edge over Smith, yet markets have sold off steadily for three days.Sep 25, 2026

Prediction Market Track Record

Republican nominee for Senate in North Carolina in 2026?LOSTPre-event: 1%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Republican nominee for Senate in North Carolina in 2026?

Resolved

2026-05-01

LOSTGreg Murphy (R)
Pre-event: 1%