Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?
Live prediction market odds for Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give 25 bps increase about a 53.8% chance. No Change follows at 45.0%, 25 bps decrease follows at 0.6%, and 50+ bps decrease follows at 0.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.
Kalshi
PolymarketKalshiPolymarketBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the Bank of Canada takes the action of cut 25bps at its Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The Bank of Canada's decision is influenced by various economic indicators, including inflation rates, employment data, and GDP growth. Analysts closely monitor these factors leading up to the announcement.
The prediction market resolves based on the official announcement made by the Bank of Canada regarding interest rates. Any changes or decisions made during the announcement will determine the outcome.
Trading for this market is scheduled to close on December 9, 2026. However, the actual decision may be announced shortly after this trading deadline.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are 25 bps increase: 54.5¢ on Kalshi, 53.0¢ on Polymarket; No Change: 43.5¢ on Kalshi, 46.5¢ on Polymarket; 25 bps decrease: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.2¢ on Polymarket; 50+ bps decrease: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
Resolved Nov 12
Final oddsLive tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.
Trader up $28.4K lifetime bought $2.1K of Yes at 69¢
6d agoWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?Trade on Kalshi 
