Will the Bank of Canada Hold or Hike in December 2026? Latest News

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Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi and Polymarket.

No ChangeIn this story

45%

KalshiBest price2.27x44¢Polymarket2.13x47¢

25 bps increase

54%

KalshiBest price1.82x55¢Polymarket1.82x55¢

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Background

The Bank of Canada will announce its next interest rate decision on December 9, 2026, at 9:45 a.m. ET, without a new Monetary Policy Report. The market asks whether the Bank raises, holds or otherwise changes its policy rate, which stands at 2.50% after a 25 basis point hike on October 28. That was its first increase since July 2023 and ended a run of holds at 2.25%.

The key dynamic is that the Bank has committed to nothing. Governor Tiff Macklem said further increases may be needed but that Governing Council will proceed carefully, one meeting at a time. Inflation pressure from Middle East energy prices argues for tightening, while a softening labour market and weak growth argue for a hold. With no Monetary Policy Report, the rate statement alone will show whether October was a one-off or the start of a sequence.

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Nov. 11, 2026: Will the Bank of Canada Change Rates Dec. 9? Hold Odds Slip to 62%

Will the Bank of Canada Change Rates on December 9, 2026? "No Change" Slips to 62%

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% at every 2026 meeting from January 28 through September 2, then raised it 25 basis points to 2.50% on October 28, according to its summary of Governing Council deliberations. No published consensus forecast exists yet for its December 9 decision. In the three days to Nov. 11, traders on the "No Change" outcome of the "Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?" market cut the hold's implied probability from 73% to 62%, a drop of about 11 percentage points.

The slide coincided with the Bank publishing its December 9 interest rate announcement page, which sets the decision for 9:45 a.m. ET. The page sets a date and time; it does not by itself show why traders repriced. The two venues agree closely: Kalshi priced No Change at 62% and Polymarket at 63% on Nov. 11.

What the Bank of Canada's 2026 Record Means for the December 9 Decision

The Bank held at 2.25% on Jan. 28, Mar. 18, Apr. 29, Jun. 10, Jul. 15 and Sep. 2, according to its September 2 press release and the official statement reprinted by the Financial Post. Those statements cited Middle East energy prices, US tariffs and Canadian counter-measures after trade talks broke down, and core inflation near 2%. The Bank then hiked to 2.50% on October 28, so a December "No Change" would mean holding at 2.50%.

The Bank had earlier used "look through" language on the energy shock, but its October 28 deliberations and Governor Macklem's November testimony state it can no longer look through the shock. December 9 carries no Monetary Policy Report, per Finance Calendar, so the rate statement alone will carry the signal. InterestRateDecision.com frames the question of a December hike directly.

Readers tracking live pricing can follow the Bank of Canada December 2026 decision market. Any new Bank communication or an economist consensus before the meeting could shift the odds, but the December 9 announcement at 9:45 a.m. ET resolves the market.

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Earlier Updates

Nov. 9, 2026: Will the Bank of Canada Hike in December? Job Losses Lift Hold to 74%

No Change67% → 74%▲7

On Nov. 9, 2026, markets moved toward a hold at the Bank of Canada's December 9 decision after Canada lost 4,700 jobs in October and unemployment rose to 6.7%. Swaps-implied odds of a December hike fell from about 40% to about 32% after the jobs data, according to Canadian Mortgage Professional. The Bank had said on Oct. 28 that further increases could be needed, so the labour data was weighed against inflation near 3%.

Nov. 7, 2026: Will the Bank of Canada Hold in December? Weak Jobs Data Lifts Pause

No Change60% → 73%▲13

On November 7, 2026, a weak October jobs report lifted the odds that the Bank of Canada would hold rates in December. Swaps-implied odds of a December hike fell from about 40% to 32%, and Canadian bond yields declined, according to FinancialJuice and Reuters via Investing.com. The shift runs against the central bank's October 28 hike to 2.50% and Governor Tiff Macklem's warning that further increases could be needed.