Bank of Japan rate decision in October
Live prediction market odds for Bank of Japan rate decision in October. Compare prices across .
Listed Resolved
This market resolved on Oct 30, 2026. No change was the officially declared outcome.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Bank of Japan rate decision held on October 30, 2026.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Bank of Japan rate decision held on October 30, 2026. The market resolves based on the official announcement regarding interest rate changes made by the Bank of Japan on that date, influenced by economic indicators and inflation data leading up to the decision.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
No changeWINNER | Yes |
25 bps decrease | No |
25 bps increase | No |
50+ bps decrease | No |
50+ bps increase | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the Bank of Japan takes the action of Maintain current rate at October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
PolymarketThe Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The Bank of Japan's rate decision impacts monetary policy and can affect the Japanese yen's value. Changes in interest rates influence borrowing costs and economic activity.
The Bank of Japan will announce its rate decision on October 30, 2026. This announcement is closely monitored by financial markets.
Factors include inflation rates, economic growth indicators, and global economic conditions. The Bank of Japan assesses these elements to determine appropriate monetary policy.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
Resolved Nov 12
Final odds
