Live prediction market odds for Bank of Japan rate decision in September. Compare prices across .
Resolved 2026-09-18
This market resolved on 2026-09-18. 25 bps increase was the officially declared outcome.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Bank of Japan's rate decision held on September 18, 2026.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Bank of Japan's rate decision held on September 18, 2026. This decision will have implications for Japan's economic recovery and global financial markets, influencing investor sentiment and currency stability.
| Candidate |
|---|
25 bps decrease |
25 bps increaseWINNER |
50+ bps decrease |
50+ bps increase |
No change |
25 bps decrease
0.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Predict.fun.
KalshiIf the Bank of Japan takes the action of Cut 25bps at the September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
Predict.funThis market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The Bank of Japan considers inflation rates, economic growth, and global market conditions when making its rate decisions. Additionally, domestic consumer spending and employment data play crucial roles in shaping monetary policy.
The Bank of Japan typically holds monetary policy meetings every month. These meetings allow the bank to assess economic conditions and adjust interest rates as necessary.
Possible outcomes include maintaining the current rate, increasing it, or implementing a decrease. Each scenario will have different implications for inflation, economic growth, and the Japanese yen's value.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
