What does the STATE vs. BBL prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest STATE vs. BBL odds?

The latest available prices are BBL: 74.0¢ on Kalshi, 73.5¢ on Polymarket; STATE: 27.5¢ on Kalshi, 26.5¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Why do STATE vs. BBL odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 1.0 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do STATE vs. BBL prediction market payouts work?

For example, BBL at 73.8¢ implies about a 73.8% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.