Live prediction market odds for Fed Decision in December?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give 25 Bps Increase about a 87.8% chance. 50+ Bps Increase follows at 10.4%, No change follows at 2.9%, and 25 Bps Decrease follows at 0.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.4 percentage points.
KalshiPolymarket USPolymarketPredict.funBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Predict.fun.
KalshiIf the Federal Reserve does a Cut of >25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
Polymarket USPredict.funThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The Fed's decision can be influenced by economic indicators such as inflation rates, employment figures, and GDP growth. Additionally, market expectations and global economic conditions may play a role.
The Federal Reserve typically meets eight times a year to discuss monetary policy, including interest rates. These meetings are scheduled in advance and are publicly announced.
A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. For example, a 25 basis point increase in the federal funds rate means an increase of 0.25%.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are 25 Bps Increase: 88.5¢ on Kalshi, 88.5¢ on Polymarket, 86.5¢ on Polymarket US, 88.3¢ on Predict.fun; 50+ Bps Increase: 10.5¢ on Kalshi, 9.1¢ on Polymarket, 11.5¢ on Polymarket US, 9.1¢ on Predict.fun; No change: 3.5¢ on Kalshi, 2.8¢ on Polymarket, 2.5¢ on Polymarket US, 1.6¢ on Predict.fun; 25 Bps Decrease: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.7¢ on Polymarket, 1.0¢ on Polymarket US, 0.4¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
Smart money is heavily buying 25 Bps Increase
Buy Yes at 87¢Wallets with $10K+ lifetime profit · last 24h
Smart money is heavily buying 25 Bps Increase
Buy Yes at 87¢Wallets with $10K+ lifetime profit · last 24h
Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.
Trader up $143K lifetime bought $1.7K of No at 91¢
8m agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Trade on Polymarket US Trader up $786K lifetime bought $1.1K of No at 97¢
45m agoWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Trade on Polymarket US Trader up $786K lifetime bought $6K of No at 97¢
1h agoWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Trade on Polymarket US Trader up $152K lifetime bought $1K of No at 97¢
1h agoWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Trade on Polymarket US Trader up $786K lifetime bought $6.7K of No at 97¢
1h agoWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Trade on Polymarket US 
