The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Fed Decision in December prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Fed Decision in December odds?

The latest available prices are 25 bps increase: 77.5¢ on Polymarket, 74.4¢ on Predict.fun; 50+ bps decrease: 0.5¢ on Polymarket, 25.0¢ on Predict.fun; No change: 19.0¢ on Polymarket, 21.1¢ on Predict.fun; 50+ bps increase: 2.0¢ on Polymarket, 0.1¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Why do Fed Decision in December odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 48.8 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do Fed Decision in December prediction market payouts work?

For example, 25 bps increase at 76.0¢ implies about a 76.0% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.

Fed Decision in December?

Fed Decision in December?

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Fed Decision in December?

Fed Decision in December?

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Fed Decision in December?

Frequently Asked Questions

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