Will the Fed Hike Interest Rates in December? Latest News

Live market odds

4 venues

Fed Decision in December?

Each outcome's chance, from what traders are paying right now on Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket and Predict.fun.

No changeIn this story

3%

Predict.funBest price40.00x2.5¢Polymarket35.71x2.8¢Polymarket US33.33x3¢Kalshi25.00x4¢

25 Bps Increase

88%

Polymarket USBest price1.15x87¢Predict.fun1.13x88.5¢Kalshi1.12x89¢Polymarket1.12x89¢

50+ Bps Increase

10%

Predict.funBest price10.99x9.1¢Polymarket10.87x9.2¢Kalshi9.09x11¢Polymarket US8.33x12¢

50+ Bps Decrease and 25 Bps Decrease: under 1% eachShow all

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Background

The Federal Open Market Committee meets December 8-9, 2026, with its decision due December 9 at 2:00 p.m. ET and a press conference by Chair Kevin Warsh at 2:30 p.m. The benchmark rate sits at 3.75%-4% after a 25 bp hike in September and a 10-2 hold on October 28, where Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a hike. New economic projections arrive with the decision.

The contract resolves Yes only on a 25 bp hike. A hold or a larger hike, such as the 50 bp move Governor Waller has said should be considered, resolves No. Reading the odds therefore means weighing both whether the Fed hikes and how much. The October statement dropped its explicit link to returning inflation to 2%, which leaves December open.

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Nov. 10, 2026: Will the Fed Hike in December? Hot CPI, Waller Put 50bp in Play

Will the Fed Hike Rates in December 2026? Markets Now Say Yes, and the Question Is How Much

No change

The two price signals measure different things. CME's FedWatch tool derives probabilities from fed funds futures, and CNBC reported that traders now see a December hike as the clear base case, with a larger half-point move a possibility. On the prediction market side, the "No change" outcome in the Fed Decision in December market fell from 22% to 4% over three days, trading at 4% on both Kalshi and Polymarket on Nov. 10.

How the Kalshi "No Change" Price Moved After the CPI Report

The drop to 4% sits just above the outcome's period low of 3%. It came as the CPI release and Waller's remarks landed on the same day, and the sources do not separate how much of the repricing each one drove. The bond market moved in the same direction: the 10-year Treasury yield climbed more than 7 basis points to 4.938%, CNBC reported.

What Waller Said About a Half-Point Hike

Waller's position, set out in a London speech on Nov. 10, was conditional. A 25bp hike remains his baseline, but he said a 50bp hike "should be considered" if core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher, Reuters reported. Core printed at 0.3%, so his condition was met.

That is an argument for weighing a larger move, not a commitment to one. A quarter-point hike remains the base case in futures pricing. CoinDesk described a December hike as appearing assured after the data.

What Could Confirm or Reverse the December Hike Pricing

Two scheduled releases come before the decision: minutes from the October meeting on Nov. 18, and the November jobs report on Dec. 4. Minutes that show broad support for the Cook and Hammack hike dissents would back the current pricing. A soft jobs report, or other officials pushing back on Waller's case for a bigger move, would be the clearest route for "No change" to recover from 4%.

The contract resolves on the FOMC decision on Dec. 9, which will settle both the hike question and its size.

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Earlier Updates

Nov. 8, 2026: Fed December Hike Odds Hit 76% After Hot October Jobs Report

25 Bps Increase66% → 76%▲10

On Nov. 8, traders raised the odds of a December Fed rate hike to 76% after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added 165,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, more than double consensus. Average hourly earnings rose 3.1% from a year earlier. The move followed the Fed's Oct. 28 hold, a 10-2 vote in which Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a hike.

Nov. 6, 2026: Fed December Hold Odds Rise to 31% Despite Hike Lean

No change26% → 31%▲5

On Nov. 6, 2026, the odds of a December Fed hold rose to about 31%, still behind a hike, after a Nov. 5 equity selloff of roughly $2 trillion and mixed Fed commentary. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin both backed further gradual hikes while flagging uncertainty over AI-driven investment, per ActionForex.

Nov. 1, 2026: Will the Fed Hike in December? Odds Slip to 70% After Two Dissents

25 Bps Increase76% → 70%▼6

On Nov. 1, 2026, the Kalshi and Polymarket markets on a December Fed hike both priced a 25 bp increase at 70%, down from 76% three days earlier, after Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a hike at the October 28 meeting. The Fed's statement dropped its 2% inflation language and said more information would guide the next step, leaving the December move open.