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Live prediction market odds for Fed decision in Jan 2027?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

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Fed decision in Jan 2027?

2027-01-27

Best price · tap to trade

25 bps increase50¢2.00xKalshiNo change47¢2.13xPolymarketFed maintains rate47¢2.13xKalshi
Compare all 8 outcomes across 3 venues

About This Market

Traders give 25 bps increase about a 47.5% chance. No change follows at 46.5%, Fed maintains rate follows at 45.0%, and 25 bps decrease follows at 3.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 48.4 percentage points.

Traders give 25 bps increase about a 47.5% chance. No change follows at 46.5%, Fed maintains rate follows at 45.0%, and 25 bps decrease follows at 3.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 48.4 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates in January 2027. This decision will influence economic growth, inflation, and borrowing costs, impacting markets and consumer behavior significantly.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Predict.funPredict.fun
Best price
2B
25 bps increase
48%
Kalshi50¢
Polymarket47¢
Predict.fun49¢
Kalshi2.00x50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
48.0%46¢50¢50¢54¢
PolymarketPolymarket
47.0%45¢47¢53¢55¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
48.4%48¢49¢51¢52¢
NC
No change
47%
—
Polymarket47¢
Predict.fun49¢
Polymarket2.13x47¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
46.5%46¢47¢53¢54¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
43.1%43¢49¢51¢57¢
FM
Fed maintains rate
single venue45%
Kalshi47¢
—
—
Kalshi2.13x47¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
45.0%43¢47¢53¢57¢
2B
25 bps decrease
3%
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket5¢
Predict.fun100¢
Kalshi25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.0%1¢4¢96¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.5%4¢5¢95¢96¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
50.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
5B
50+ bps decrease
3%
—
Polymarket3¢
Predict.fun100¢
Polymarket33.33x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
3.0%3¢3¢97¢98¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
50.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarketPredict.funPredict.fun

Best price among US-regulated venues.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread48.4%
Platforms3
Candidates8
Leader

25 bps increase

47.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Fed decision in Jan 2027?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the Fed's decision on interest rates?

The Federal Reserve considers various economic indicators, including inflation rates, employment data, and overall economic growth. Market expectations and global economic conditions also play a crucial role.

How often does the Fed make interest rate decisions?

The Federal Reserve typically meets eight times a year to review economic conditions and make decisions on interest rates. Additional meetings may occur if urgent economic issues arise.

What are the potential outcomes of the Fed's decision?

Possible outcomes include maintaining the current rate, increasing it, or decreasing it. Each decision can have wide-ranging effects on financial markets, consumer spending, and overall economic stability.

What does the Fed decision in Jan 2027 prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Fed decision in Jan 2027 odds?

The latest available prices are 25 bps increase: 48.0¢ on Kalshi, 47.0¢ on Polymarket, 48.4¢ on Predict.fun; No change: 46.5¢ on Polymarket, 43.1¢ on Predict.fun; Fed maintains rate: 45.0¢ on Kalshi; 25 bps decrease: 2.0¢ on Kalshi, 4.5¢ on Polymarket, 50.0¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Fed January 2027 Hike Odds Hit 34% After Warsh Defies TrumpPolymarket and Kalshi both price a 1-in-3 chance of another Fed hike in January 2027, up 12 points in three days, with inflation still at 3.3%.Sep 18, 2026