Live prediction market odds for Fed decision in Jan 2027?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
Listed Updated Expected to settle by
Traders give 25 Bps Increase about a 59.3% chance. No change follows at 37.8%, 50+ Bps Increase follows at 1.9%, and 25 Bps Decrease follows at 1.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 7.6 percentage points.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Predict.funKalshiPolymarketPredict.funBest price among US-regulated venues.
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Predict.fun.
KalshiIf the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
Predict.funThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The Federal Reserve considers various economic indicators, including inflation rates, employment data, and overall economic growth. Market expectations and global economic conditions also play a crucial role.
The Federal Reserve typically meets eight times a year to review economic conditions and make decisions on interest rates. Additional meetings may occur if urgent economic issues arise.
Possible outcomes include maintaining the current rate, increasing it, or decreasing it. Each decision can have wide-ranging effects on financial markets, consumer spending, and overall economic stability.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are 25 Bps Increase: 59.0¢ on Kalshi, 59.5¢ on Polymarket, 59.5¢ on Predict.fun; No change: 36.5¢ on Kalshi, 39.0¢ on Polymarket, 37.7¢ on Predict.fun; 50+ Bps Increase: 2.5¢ on Kalshi, 1.3¢ on Polymarket, 8.2¢ on Predict.fun; 25 Bps Decrease: 1.5¢ on Kalshi, 0.6¢ on Polymarket, 8.2¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
Smart money is betting against 50+ Bps Increase
Buy No at 98¢Wallets with $10K+ lifetime profit · last 24h
Smart money is betting against 50+ Bps Increase
Buy No at 98¢Wallets with $10K+ lifetime profit · last 24h
Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.
Trader up $418K lifetime bought $3.4K of No at 40¢
3h agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $194K lifetime bought $4.3K of No at 43¢
16h agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $27K lifetime sold $1.1K of No at 45¢
20h agoWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $154K lifetime sold $2.9K of No at 52¢
1d agoWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?Trade on Kalshi Trader up $154K lifetime sold $2.9K of No at 52¢
1d agoWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?Trade on Kalshi 
