Live prediction market odds for GPT-6 released by…?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
Resolved 2026-08-21
This market resolved on 2026-08-21. September 30, 2026 was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Predict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)
Predict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
September 30, 2026WINNER | 100% | 98% |
December 31, 2026 | 100% | 98% |
August 31, 2026 | 0% | — |
September 30, 2026
99.1% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.funThis market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting. Created At: 2026-03-02T12:44:58.445646348Z
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are September 30, 2026: 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 98.3¢ on Predict.fun; December 31, 2026: 99.9¢ on Polymarket, 98.1¢ on Predict.fun; August 31, 2026: 0.1¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 1.8 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, September 30, 2026 at 99.1¢ implies about a 99.1% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.
