Grok 4.6 debut arena score
Live prediction market odds for Grok 4.6 debut arena score. Compare prices across .
This market has closed on Oct 1, 2026. The chart below shows historical odds.
Grok 4.6 debut arena score is being tracked on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Grok 4.6 debut arena score is being tracked on Polymarket and Kalshi. The outcome of this event could influence perceptions of the technology's capabilities and impact its market reception.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
1450+ | No |
1460+ | No |
1470+ | No |
1480+ | No |
Above 1465 | No |
Above 1475 | No |
Above 1485 | No |
Above 1490 | No |
Above 1495 | No |
Above 1500 | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
KalshiIf Grok 4.6 scores above 1460 on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) Before Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If multiple qualifying models are added, the highest scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added following the initial qualifying model will not count. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Polymarket
Predict.funThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the next SpaceXAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying SpaceXAI model must have “Grok” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-4.6-high, grok-4.7-thinking, grok-5, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as grok-4.1-expert, grok-4.3-heavy, grok-4.5-GA will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The debut arena score serves as a benchmark for evaluating Grok 4.6's performance and capabilities. A higher score may enhance its credibility and adoption in the tech industry.
Market reactions can be influenced by the debut arena score, as it reflects the technology's effectiveness. Positive scores may lead to increased investments and interest in Grok's applications.
Factors such as pre-release testing results, user feedback, and competitive technologies can impact the arena score. Additionally, media coverage and expert opinions may shape public expectations.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
