Hotstuff FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Live prediction market odds for Hotstuff FDV above ___ one day after launch?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
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Compare all 8 outcomes across 2 venuesTraders give $20M about a 39.7% chance. $100M follows at 38.0%, $50M follows at 37.9%, and $80M follows at 31.8%. Compare prices from Polymarket and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 31.1 percentage points.
Polymarket
Predict.funPolymarketPredict.funOfficial settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.funThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Hotstuff's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Hotstuff will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Hotsuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.
The latest available prices are $20M: 30.0¢ on Polymarket, 49.4¢ on Predict.fun; $100M: 41.0¢ on Polymarket, 35.0¢ on Predict.fun; $50M: 25.0¢ on Polymarket, 50.8¢ on Predict.fun; $80M: 25.5¢ on Polymarket, 38.0¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.
The largest price difference shown across venues is 31.1 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.
For example, $20M at 39.7¢ implies about a 39.7% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.
Resolved Nov 12
Final odds
